Monster Energy NASCAR All-Star Race odds, picks 2018: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Charlotte

The biggest names in NASCAR will be at Charlotte Motor Speedway for the 2018 NASCAR All-Star Race Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET, which features winners from the 2017 and 2018 seasons as well as wild-card entries. Kyle Buch and Kevin Harvick are the Vegas co-favorites at 21-5, followed by Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson all at 8-1.

This unique event features restrictor plates, a specialized aero package on each car, and four stages that will determine the winner of the $1 million prize.

With so much on the line and so many variables to consider, you need to see what SportsLine's model, which has simulated this huge race 10,000 times, has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

It has been all over the 2018 NASCAR season as well, calling the 1-2 finish for Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. It also predicted seven of the top 10 finishers at the STP 500 and placed champion Clint Bowyer, who wasn't a top Vegas contender with 15-1 odds, in the projected top 10. And just last week, it nailed Harvick's huge victory at the KC Masterpiece 400. Anybody following its picks this season is up huge.

Now it turns its sights to the 2018 NASCAR All-Star Race and its surprising picks are in.

One driver the model loves this week: Kurt Busch, who is going off at 16-1 in the latest odds.

Even though Vegas doesn't view him as a top-five contender, the model has Busch finishing in the top five and making a serious run at winning it all. That's because he's had a lot of success at Charlotte, recording 12 career top-10 victories at this track. He's a value play you should be all over this weekend.

A shocker for this event: Kyle Larson, one of the Vegas favorites, barely finishes inside the top 10.

Larson has never finished in the top five in a restrictor-plate race and has an average finish of almost 20th at this track. There are much better values than the 8-1 premium he'll cost you.

The model also says two other drivers going off with odds of longer than 12-1 make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 NASCAR All-Star Race at Charlotte? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kevin Harvick 21-5
Kyle Busch 21-5
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Ryan Blaney 8-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Denny Hamlin 15-1
Clint Bowyer 16-1
Kurt Busch 16-1
Jimmie Johnson 18-1

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