All eyes will be on East Tennessee on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET for the second 2018 NASCAR at Bristol race of the season. The Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race features the top drivers on the planet zipping around Bristol's coliseum. Kyle Busch has been the betting favorite so far, going off at 9-5 NASCAR at Bristol odds, while Kyle Larson, the second-biggest favorite and Saturday night's pole-sitter, is at 9-4. Before you lock in any 2018 NASCAR at Bristol picks, it's worth your time to see what SportsLine data engineer Mike McClure has to say.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

It correctly projected recent wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan last week, and was all over the spring race at Bristol, projecting both champion Kyle Busch and runner-up Kyle Larson as top-two contenders from the start. Anybody following its picks this season is way, way up.

Now that the 2018 NASCAR at Bristol field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One surprising pick from the model for Saturday: Larson, one of the top Vegas favorites at the runner-up to Kyle Busch in April's race at Bristol, is shut out of the top two. He's a driver to fade for NASCAR at Bristol 2018.

Larson was close in April, but wasn't able to close it out. He also struggled while leading, getting passed by Brad Keselowski at the end of Stage 1 and by Busch with just six laps remaining. Larson has been shut out of the top 10 in three of his last four starts and was sixth and ninth here last year.

Another shocker: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who finished fourth in April's race at Bristol, barely cracks the top 20.

Stenhouse was bet down from 25-1 to 12-1 after he started fourth and finished fourth the last time NASCAR visited East Tennessee. He was also top-10 at the Bristol spring race last year. Vegas lists him as a top-four contender for this event, but SportsLine's model says there are far better values in this loaded field.

Instead, the model is targeting five long shots with odds of 20-1 or longer who could make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race? And which long shots stun NASCAR at Bristol? Check out the latest odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kyle Busch 9-5
Kyle Larson 9-4
Kevin Harvick 8-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 12-1 
Erik Jones 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1 
Kurt Busch 20-1   
Brad Keselowski 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1 
Joey Logano 25-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Chase Elliott 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 30-1
Aric Almirola 30-1