NASCAR at Fontana odds, picks 2019: Proven model says Clint Bowyer surprises at Auto Club 400

The 2019 Auto Club 400, the fifth race in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series' new season, takes place on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. It's the final West Coast race before the circuit heads east to Martinsville next week and will attract wagers from professional and amateur bettors like. The starting lineup has been set after Friday's unusual qualifying and it's Austin Dillon (20-1) on the pole in his No. 3 car. He has surprised many with his speed, but he'll have to hold off some of the favorites in the 2019 Auto Club 400 odds like Kyle Busch (9-2), who will start fourth, and Kevin Harvick (9-2), who will begin in second. Before making any 2019 Auto Club 400 picks of your own, read the top NASCAR at Fontana predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. And it's off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top contender and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It was also all over Kyle Busch as a top contender at the TicketGuardian 500 last week. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Auto Club Speedway are in his blood. His model simulated the 2019 NASCAR at Fontana race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 Auto Club 400, we can tell you the model is high on Clint Bowyer, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 25-1 NASCAR at Fontana odds.

Bowyer will start in ninth place and the model is high on his chances to make a surprising run at winning it all on this two-mile track. Bowyer has eight top-10 finishes and three top-fives at Auto Club Speedway in his 18 career starts. And you can feel confident about his ability to stay in this race because he's only failed to finish at this course one time.

The veteran Haas Automation Ford driver has been impressive early in the 2019 NASCAR's schedule, finishing in the top 15 three times, including a fifth-place run at Atlanta. Additionally, he finished second in his Daytona Duel, so he's shown he has the speed to be close to the top of the leaderboard this year. Confidently lock him in as a value pick for the 2019 Auto Club 400 on Sunday.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, last week's winner in Phoenix and the top Vegas favorite at Fontana, falls short of winning it all this week. 

Busch has run extremely well at Auto Club Speedway historically, with 14 top-10 finishes in 20 career starts and wins in 2005, '13 and '14. However, Toyotas have had trouble keeping up with the Fords at the tracks that have employed the new aerodynamics package. Even though Busch is driving well right now, he might not have the speed to deal with the pack of Fords on Sunday, especially at the high premium you'll need to pay for him.

The model is also targeting three other drivers total with 2019 Auto Club 400 odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Auto Club 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest NASCAR at Fontana odds below and then visit SportsLine here to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 Auto Club 400, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kyle Busch 9-2
Kevin Harvick 9-2
Brad Keselowski 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Joey Logano 6-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Austin Dillon 20-1
Chase Elliott 25-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-1
Jimmie Johnson 50-1
Alex Bowman 50-1

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