NASCAR: Toyota 500

After finishing on top of the leaderboard at Pocono and Indianapolis, Kevin Harvick has seen his lead in the NASCAR standings grow to 85 points as Chase Elliott (552 points) and Brad Keselowski (549) inch further back. Harvick will look to claim his third checkered flag in his last four starts on Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET in the 2020 Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway. Recent track history, however, isn't in his favor since he's finished ninth or worse in six of his last nine NASCAR at Kentucky starts.

William Hill lists Harvick at 4-1 in the latest 2020 Quaker State 400 odds, while Kyle Busch (11-2), Denny Hamlin (13-2) and Martin Truex Jr. (13-2) are next in line on the 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds board. There are seven drivers fetching odds of 9-1 or better in the 2020 Quaker State 400 starting grid. Before locking in any 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky predictions, be sure to see the latest 2020 Quaker State 400 picks and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington. 

Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. And last week at The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Anybody who has follow the model has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model simulated NASCAR at Kentucky 2020 on Sunday, July 12 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 Quaker State 400 predictions

For the 2020 Quaker State 400, the model is high on Erik Jones, even though he's a 30-1 long shot in the latest 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After a slow start to the season, Jones has been a regular contender in recent weeks, finishing in the top five in two of his last four starts. 

He's historically been very strong at Kentucky Speedway as well. The 24-year-old has made the top 10 in every single start at this racetrack, which includes a third-place finish in his last race at Kentucky. With six top-10 finishes this season, Jones should be in the mix again on Sunday, making him a strong choice for your 2020 Quaker State 400 bets.

And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, the Vegas favorite at 4-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2020 Quaker State 400 starting lineup. Harvick has been the most dominant driver in NASCAR this season and is coming off his fourth win of the season at The Brickyard on Sunday.

However, he hasn't been able to get over the hump at Kentucky so far in his career. Harvick has just one top-five finish at the 1.5-mile tri-oval and last year he failed to crack the top 20 altogether. With NASCAR still running without qualifying or practice, Harvick's track history makes him a fade on Sunday.

How to make 2020 Quaker State 400 picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag, including a massive long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins Sunday's 2020 Quaker State 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Kentucky leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500

2020 NASCAR at Kentucky odds

Kevin Harvick 4-1
Kyle Busch 11-2
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Martin Truex Jr. 13-2
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Chase Elliott 8-1
Joey Logano 9-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 22-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
William Byron 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Clint Bowyer 40-1
Matt Kenseth 50-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Christopher Bell 75-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Ryan Newman 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Bubba Wallace 250-1
Cole Custer 250-1
Chris Buescher 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Ryan Preece 1500-1
Michael McDowell 1500-1
Ty Dillon 1500-1
Daniel Suarez 2500-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Joey Gase 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1