NASCAR at Las Vegas 2018 odds, picks: Advanced model reveals surprising Playoffs predictions for South Point 400

The 2018 South Point 400 gets underway at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and also marks the beginning of the 2018 NASCAR playoffs. Sixteen drivers qualified for NASCAR's postseason, and while other contenders will be in the field, all eyes will be on the chase for the Monster Energy Cup title. After Saturday's qualifying, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch remain the co-favorites at 3-1 in the latest 2018 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. One of the biggest movers, however, is Erik Jones, who won the pole and now sits at 12-1 after opening at 15-1. Before you lock in your final 2018 NASCAR at Las Vegas picks, be sure to check out what Mike McClure has to say.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

It projected recent wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and was high on 20-1 long shot winner Kurt Busch at Bristol and Brad Keselowski at 12-1 in Indianapolis. Anybody following its picks this season is up huge.

Now that the 2018 South Point 400 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One pick we'll give away for NASCAR at Las Vegas 2018: Brad Keselowski, a double-digit underdog at 10-1, makes a strong run and finishes in the top three.

He comes into this race red hot after winning back-to-back events at Darlington and Indianapolis. He also has wins at Las Vegas in two of the last four years, so he's a 2018 South Point 400 pick you should be all over on Sunday.

Another shocker: Kyle Larson, going off at 9-2 in the 2018 South Point 400 odds, finishes outside the top three.

Larson didn't run particularly well in qualifying and will start the race in 11th place on Sunday after reaching a top speed of 185.95 miles per hour on Saturday. Even though he's had several top-five finishes at this track, he's never won and never even led a lap. He's winless in all of 2018, and the model says that trend will continue on Sunday. There are far better values in this loaded NASCAR at Las Vegas field. 

The model is also targeting three monster long shots with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs them could hit it big.

So who wins the first leg of the 2018 NASCAR Playoffs? And which long shots stun NASCAR at Las Vegas? Check out the latest odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kevin Harvick 3-1
Kyle Busch 3-1
Kyle Larson 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Erik Jones 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1

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