NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks 2019: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at TicketGuardian 500

The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. After an electric start to the season at Daytona and two fast 1.5-mile tracks in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Monster Energy NASCAR cup series' first race in the tighter quarters of the one-mile loop at ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five March races at this track and is the 9-4 favorite to collect another win in the latest 2019 TicketGuardian 500 odds. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is getting 16-1, while Kurt Busch is at 30-1 NASCAR at Phoenix odds after a strong start to his season that has him at eighth in the NASCAR standings. Before you make your 2019 TicketGuardian 500 picks, be sure to look at the NASCAR at Phoenix projected leaderboard from the SportsLine Projection Model.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. And it's off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers at last week's Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up. 

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like ISM Raceway are in his blood. His model has now simulated Sunday's 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we can tell you the model is high on Clint Bowyer, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 25-1 NASCAR odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. 

Bowyer broke a five-season drought without a win last year and went on to grab a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the way to a 12th-place finish in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he's added a top-five finish at Atlanta and has shown impressive speed at times. Bowyer has seven career top-10s in Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who drives for Stewart-Haas Racing, was also second in one of this year's Daytona Duels and closed out last year's NASCAR schedule with an eight-place finish at Homestead. He'll also come armed to the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 with a similar car setup to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

One of the shocking 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix picks from the model: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner at ISM Raceway and the top Vegas favorite, makes a strong run but falls short of winning it all.

Harvick has made a career out of getting to the front of the pack consistently at this track. In fact, he has finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway.

However, in his last start at Phoenix, he finished in fifth after starting in the pole position and leading for 73 laps. And the sting of not winning in Las Vegas last week after leading 88 laps will be fresh on his mind. Even with his success at Phoenix, there are far better values in this loaded field than the 9-4 premium he's commanding.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2019 TicketGuardian 500 odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 TicketGuardian 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the full projected leaderboard for the TicketGuardian 500 from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kevin Harvick 9-4
Kyle Busch 7-2
Brad Keselowski 7-1
Joey Logano 8-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Denny Hamlin 15-1
Ryan Blaney 16-1  
Kyle Larson 20-1
Aric Almirola 20-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Erik Jones 25-1
Kurt Busch 30-1

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