NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks, predictions 2018: Fade Kevin Harvick, back Denny Hamlin in Can-Am 500

It's win or go home for up to eight drivers in Sunday's Can-Am 500 NASCAR Playoff race at Phoenix, the final race before next week's Championship 4 in sunny Miami. Two of the championship's four spots have been secured by Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano, but two more will be decided in the 2018 NASCAR at Phoenix race starting at 2:30 p.m. ET. Harvick is the favorite in the latest NASCAR at Phoenix odds at 8-5, followed by Kyle Busch (4-1), Martin Truex Jr. (7-1) and Chase Elliott (8-1). Busch and Truex could get in on points, but there's a win-and-in element for six drivers. With so much on the line, you'll want to check out what former Vegas bookmaker and NASCAR handicapper Micah Roberts has to say before locking in your own 2018 NASCAR at Phoenix picks.

Roberts nailed the NASCAR Playoff race at Martinsville, calling for Logano to take the checkered flag despite being a 12-1 underdog. Logano bumped Truex Jr. out of the way on the final lap for the huge victory. 

Roberts also picked the winner in first two races of the NASCAR Playoffs 2018, calling for Brad Keselowski to win at Vegas at 12-1 odds and for Busch to secure his seventh win of the season, which he did in Richmond after starting from the 11th spot. Roberts also picked Truex Jr. four weeks ago at Charlotte, who was in line to win before Jimmie Johnson wiped him out on the final lap. 

In the 2017 playoffs, Roberts picked nine of 10 winners. That was no fluke: In 2016, he told readers to back Hamlin at 15-1 in the Daytona 500. The result: Hamlin edged Truex for the checkered flag. Roberts also nailed Hamlin at 40-1 to win at Watkins Glen later that year. 

Now, he has analyzed the 2018 NASCAR at Phoenix field from every possible angle and locked in his Can-Am 500 picks. You can see his entire projected leaderboard only at SportsLine. 

We can tell you he's not going with the big favorite in Harvick, who has won seven of his last 12 starts at Phoenix and owns track records in wins and laps led. But with Harvick already locked into next week's Championship 4, his motivation to pull out all the stops for another win may not be there. There are far better values on the 2018 NASCAR at Phoenix odds board than the 8-5 premium you'll need to pay for him.

Instead, one of the 2018 Can-Am 500 picks he likes to finish near the front: Denny Hamlin, a 15-1 darkhorse who has been a consistent contender in Phoenix. 

"He has 11 top-five finishes in 26 starts at Phoenix, which includes his fourth-place finish in March," Roberts told SportsLine. "He was third at Richmond in April as well. Last season, he led 193 laps at Phoenix before being punted as a retaliation from a previous race." Hamlin is a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

For the win, Roberts is backing a driver who has a strong history at Phoenix, but isn't one of the favorites. He also has a massive long shot making a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big.

So who wins NASCAR at Phoenix? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.

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