NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For the first time this season, NASCAR will be under the lights when the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR at Richmond as the leader in the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He's looking for his fourth win of the year and the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds give him a 9-4 chance to get it as he starts in fifth place after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the fastest speed in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, giving him the pole position. His NASCAR at Richmond odds have moved from 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are among the other top contenders at this .75-mile short track. Before locking in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 picks of your own, first be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine. 

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It also nailed Busch's huge win at Bristol last week. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Richmond Raceway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Richmond 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Kyle Larson, who makes a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite going off at 25-1 NASCAR at Richmond odds. 

Larson's average finish at Richmond is 9.7, which is the third-best among active drivers. He's finished seventh or better in four of his last five events at Richmond and won the Richmond fall race in 2017. He'll start in 14th place after a slightly slower than expected qualifying time of 123.54 MPH. But he posted the fastest lap (121.70 MPH) in the first practice session on Friday, so he's shown the speed needed to climb the NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening. 

And a massive shocker: Truex Jr., one of the top Vegas favorites at 6-1, doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR at Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting at seventh in the standings, but he's tapered off recently. Truex finished 12th at Texas Motor Speedway and then struggled last week at Bristol, finishing 17th. In his career, Truex hasn't fared very well at Richmond Raceway either. In fact, he's finished in the top five just three times in 26 career starts at the track.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Toyota Owners 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2019 NASCAR at Richmond odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 Toyota Owners 400, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Kyle Busch 9-4

Kevin Harvick 9-2

Martin Truex Jr. 6-1

Joey Logano 8-1

Brad Keselowski 10-1

Denny Hamlin 12-1

Chase Elliott 12-1

Kurt Busch 12-1

Ryan Blaney 18-1

Clint Bowyer 20-1

Aric Almirola 20-1

Eric Jones 20-1

Kyle Larson 25-1

Jimmie Johnson 40-1

Daniel Suarez 50-1

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