NASCAR at Sonoma odds, picks 2019: Projection model says Ryan Blaney surprises at Toyota/Save Mart 350
SportsLine simulated the 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times and has some surprising picks
After a week off, the 2019 NASCAR season continues on Sunday at Sonoma Raceway for the 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350. NASCAR at Sonoma is a departure from the norm for NASCAR, as the California track is a 12-turn, 2.52-mile road course instead of an oval. For years, NASCAR would be overrun by road-course specialists when they'd take on these challenges but nowadays top drivers use these events to try to show off their versatility. Kevin Harvick won this race in 2017 and finished second in 2018 to give him four consecutive finishes of sixth or better at Sonoma. He's the 7-2 favorite in the latest 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds. Defending champion Martin Truex Jr. is just behind him at 9-2, while seven drivers total are listed at 10-1 or better. But before you make your 2019 Toyota/Save Mart picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR at Sonoma predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.
The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It also called Kyle Busch's huge win at Bristol last month. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch's win at Pocono.
It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.
McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Sonoma Raceway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times and the results were surprising.
For NASCAR at Sonoma 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Ryan Blaney, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 25-1. The 25-year-old has been running well the past couple seasons. He's finished inside the top 10 in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup standings the past two seasons and sits in ninth place right now with four top-five finishes on the season.
Blaney finished ninth at Sonoma two seasons ago and also has a top-10 finish at Watkins Glen, another road course on the NASCAR circuit. However, he really proved himself as a road course racer when he won the inaugural road course race in Charlotte last season, which was the last road course race NASCAR ran. If he can put together a complete race on Sunday, he'll have a great shot to fly up the NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.
And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, the Vegas favorite at 7-2, makes a strong run but falls short of the title. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR at Sonoma lineup.
Harvick won this event in 2017 and finished second to Truex last season, but he's had a tough time getting all the way to the front despite being one of the favorites in nearly every race this year. In fact, Harvick hasn't finished better than fourth place in a race all season and he's had three finishes outside the top 20 altogether. In his last two road races of last year at Watkins Glen and Charlotte, he barely managed to crack the top 10, so there are plenty of reasons to fade Harvick on Sunday.
The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 25-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all, including an astronomical long shot. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.
So who wins the 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest NASCAR odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.
Kevin Harvick 7-2
Martin Truex Jr. 9-2
Clint Bowyer 6-1
Kyle Busch 6-1
Chase Elliott 6-1
Kurt Busch 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Denny Hamlin 14-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Ryan Blaney 25-1
Daniel Suarez 25-1
Erik Jones 40-1
Kyle Larson 40-1
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