NASCAR at Talladega odds, picks 2019: Model says Ricky Stenhouse Jr. surprises at GEICO 500

Talladega Superspeedway is one of the most iconic venues in all of NASCAR and on Sunday, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will return to the 2.66-mile tri-oval with 32 degrees of banking or more in each turn to slingshot cars around at blistering speeds. The 2019 Geico 500 is the first of two races held at Talladega each season and restrictor-plate racing always guarantees excitement, which is why a staggering 15 drivers are listed at 18-1 or shorter in the latest 2019 Geico 500 odds. Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are co-favorites at 8-1, while 2019 Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin is one of four drivers just behind them at 10-1. But before you make your 2019 Geico 500 picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account. 

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five. It also called Kyle Busch's huge win at Bristol earlier this month. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Talladega Superspeedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated the 2019 GEICO 500 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Talladega 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 18-1 NASCAR at Talladega odds. Stenhouse is a superspeedway specialist, with both of his career wins and half of his 14 career top fives coming at Daytona and Talladega.

The 31-year-old has run in the top 10 in seven of his 11 career starts at Talladega, winning the 2017 Geico 500 and coming in fifth in this race a season ago. Stenhouse's Jack Roush Ford is dialed in for the high speeds of Talladega and he's a great value at 18-1.

One of the shocking 2019 GEICO 500 picks from the model: Denny Hamlin, one of the top Vegas favorites at 10-1, doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded NASCAR at Talladega lineup.

The 38-year-old veteran is second in the NASCAR standings after finishing in the top five in each of his last four races. However, he hasn't fared well at Talladega in recent years. In fact, he's made the top five just four times in his last 21 starts at this track. 

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2019 GEICO 500 odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 GEICO 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2019 NASCAR at Talladega odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard for the 2019 GEICO 500, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks.

Joey Logano 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Clint Bowyer 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Aric Almirola 14-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Jimmie Johnson 18-1
Paul Menard 18-1
Kurt Busch 18-1
Daniel Suarez 18-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Matt Dibenedetto 30-1
Austin Dillon 40-1
Kyle Larson 40-1
William Byron 40-1
Ryan Newman 40-1

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