NASCAR: Coca-Cola 600
Jim Dedmon / USA TODAY Sports

After finishing in the top five in his last five races, Kevin Harvick has seen his lead in the NASCAR standings grow to 88 points as Brad Keselowski (587) and Ryan Blaney (580) inch further back. Harvick will try to claim his fifth checkered flag of the season on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in the 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Harvick has had plenty of success at the track recently, finishing on top of the leaderboard in two of his last three NASCAR at Texas races.

William Hill lists Harvick at 11-4 in the latest 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds, while Denny Hamlin (6-1), Kyle Busch (13-2) and Ryan Blaney (15-2) are next in line, according to Vegas. There are a total of eight drivers fetching odds of 12-1 or better in the latest 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds. Before locking in any 2020 NASCAR at Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 picks and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington. 

Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and also identified four top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. Anybody who has follow the model has seen some huge returns. 

Now, the model simulated NASCAR at Texas 2020 on Sunday, July 19 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 predictions

For the 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he's an 18-1 long shot in the latest 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After a slow start to the season, Almirola has been a regular contender in recent weeks, finishing in the top 10 in seven of his last eight starts. 

He's historically been very strong at Texas Motor Speedway as well. The 36-year-old has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Texas, which includes a runner-up finish in his last appearance at this track. With 10 top-10 finishes this season, Almirola should be in the mix again on Sunday, making him a strong choice for your 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 bets.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, one of the top Vegas favorites at 13-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts starting lineup. The younger Busch brother has two career wins at Texas, with the most recent coming in the spring race of 2018. 

But he hasn't found his way into the winner's circle this year in the Cup Series. And while he had several close calls earlier in the season, he hasn't finished better than fifth in the last seven points events, a span that also includes three races where he's finished 20th or worse. With short odds and not much recent success, Kyle Busch is one of the 2020 NASCAR at Texas favorites to fade this week.

How to make 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2020 NASCAR at Texas odds of 11-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins Sunday's 2020 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Texas leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500

2020 NASCAR at Texas odds (via William Hill)

Kevin Harvick 11-4
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Kyle Busch 13-2
Ryan Blaney 15-2  
Martin Truex Jr. 19-2
Chase Elliott 11-1
Brad Keselowski 11-1
Joey Logano 12-1  
Aric Almirola 18-1
Jimmie Johnson 22-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Matt DiBenedetto 30-1
Erik Jones 40-1
William Byron 40-1
Clint Bowyer 60-1
Tyler Reddick 75-1
Christopher Bell 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Matt Kenseth 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Ryan Newman 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 125-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Chris Buescher 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Ryan Preece 1500-1
Michael McDowell 1500-1
Ty Dillon 2500-1
Daniel Suarez 2500-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Joey Gase 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
J.J. Yeley 5000-1