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The NASCAR Cup Series only goes to three short tracks per season and the iconic paperclip-shaped, 0.526-mile oval at Martinsville Speedway gets the honor of hosting the penultimate race of the 2020 NASCAR season. The green flag drops on the 2020 Xfinity 500 at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday. When the checkered flag comes down we'll know which of the eight drivers still alive in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs have qualified for the Championship 4 in Phoenix next week. Joey Logano is the only driver to clinch his spot by way of a win at Kansas, so seven other drivers will be fighting hard to win the 2020 Xfinity 500. 

Meanwhile, Kyle Busch proved last week that the other 32 drivers in the field are also capable of battling for a victory and the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion is listed at 8-1 in the 2020 Xfinity 500 odds from William Hill. Clint Bowyer (25-1) and Jimmie Johnson (30-1) aren't competing for a title, but they'd love to get a win as long shots in the NASCAR at Martinsville odds. Before you make your 2020 Xfinity 500 picks, be sure to see the latest 2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Martinsville predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at both Darlington races. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May. 

The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and then nailed four of the top five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. 

During the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 in Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 on the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the NASCAR at Martinsville race on Sunday, Nov. 1, 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 Xfinity 500 predictions

One surprise: The model is high on Kevin Harvick, even though he's a 10-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Martinsville odds from William Hill. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Harvick hasn't technically clinched his spot in the Championship 4, but he's 42 points clear of fourth place and is virtually assured a spot if he can keep his car out of the garage and avoid being penalized for any rules violations.

Still, Harvick has led the 2020 NASCAR standings for most of the season and the chance to capture a 10th win this year and vault back in front of Logano before next week in Phoenix has to be appealing. Harvick's only win at Martinsville was in the 2011 Goody's Fast Relief 500, but he does have 19 top-10 finishes and has recorded five top 10s in five of his last six starts at this track. 

And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 11-2, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded field. Hamlin would certainly love to capture his eighth win of the season and his sixth career win at Martinsville on Sunday, but he's 27 points clear of fifth place and he'll likely be driving conservatively to ensure he's in the Championship 4 next week in Phoenix.

Hamlin also struggled earlier this season at Martinsville, finishing three laps down and in 24th place at the 2020 Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 in June. Despite being excellent on short tracks throughout the course of his career, Hamlin doesn't have a single top-10 finish at Bristol, Richmond or Martinsville yet this year.

How to make 2020 Xfinity 500 picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR Playoffs at Martinsville odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins Sunday's 2020 Xfinity 500 And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Martinsville leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.

2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Martinsville odds (via William Hill)

Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Brad Keselowski 11-2
Denny Hamlin 11-2
Chase Elliott 8-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
Joey Logano 17-2
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Kurt Busch 28-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
William Byron 30-1
Jimmie Johnson 30-1
Aric Almirola 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 60-1
Erik Jones 60-1
Tyler Reddick 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Christopher Bell 125-1
Cole Custer 150-1
Ryan Newman 150-1
Bubba Wallace 150-1
Matt Kenseth 200-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1
Chris Buescher 300-1
Michael McDowell 2000-1
Ryan Preece 2000-1
John Hunter Nemechek 2500-1
Daniel Suarez 2500-1
Ty Dillon 2500-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Brennan Poole 5000-1
Joey Gase 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1