After Austin Cindric won two of the first five NASCAR Xfinity Series races of the season, there's been a different winner the last three races -- Justin Allgaier at Atlanta, Josh Berry at Martinsville and Jeb Burton at Talladega in the last Xfinity race on Apr. 24. Now the Xfinity Series heads to historic Darlington Raceway on Saturday for the 2021 Steakhouse Elite 200. The green flag drops at 1 p.m. ET for this 147-lap race at the 1.366-mile oval.

William Hill Sportsbook lists Cindric as the favorite at 14-5 in the 2021 Steakhouse Elite 200 odds. Other NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington contenders include A.J. Allmendinger (9-2), Harrison Burton (5-1) and Noah Gragson (11-2). Before making any 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Steakhouse Elite 200 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began the 2021 Xfinity Series schedule by nailing Austin Cindric's win at Daytona at 10-1. It also called Cindric to win again at 5-2 in the Call 811 Before You Dig 200 and then it nailed nine of the top 10 in the 2021 Cook Out 250 at Martinsville. It also nailed three top-five finishers at Talladega in April. Anybody who followed those picks saw huge returns.

Now, his model simulated the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2021 Steakhouse Elite 200 predictions 

One surprise: The model is high on Brandon Jones, even though he's a big 14-1 long shot in the Xfinity Series at Darlington odds. He has a better shot to win than his odds imply, making him a great value pick. Jones already has four top-five finishes this season, including top-three runs at Homestead-Miami (2nd) and Las Vegas (3rd).

Jones was the winner of a thrilling Xfinity race at Darlington last September. Denny Hamlin was in that field and Jones passed both Hamlin and Ross Chastain in the closing laps to pull off the surprising win. Jones also picked up a top-10 at Darlington in both 2019 and 2016. With his strong track record and longer odds, Jones is certainly worth backing in 2021 Steakhouse Elite 200 bets. 

And a massive shocker: Harrison Burton, one of the top-three Vegas favorite at 5-1, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in this field. Burton finished in the top 10 in both Xfinity Darlington races last season, but didn't hit the top five in either of those.

And in 2021, he still is looking for a finish better than third. He settled for 10th at Talladega and seventh at Martinsville the week before. With no wins this year or at Darlington, the model is fading Burton at his odds this week. 

How to make 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR Xfinity Series picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Steakhouse Elite 200 2021? And which long shots stun the NASCAR Xfinity Series? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Cindric's season-opening win. 

2021 Steakhouse Elite 200 odds

Austin Cindric 14-5
A.J. Allmendinger 9-2
Harrison Burton 5-1
Noah Gragson 11-2
Daniel Hemric 7-1
Justin Allgaier 15-2
Ty Gibbs 17-2
Brandon Jones 14-1
Justin Haley 15-1
Josh Berry 30-1
Jeb Burton 30-1
Michael Annett 40-1
Riley Herbst 60-1
Brett Moffitt 60-1
Myatt Snider 75-1
Field 100-1
Ryan Sieg 100-1
Brandon Brown 300-1
Jeremy Clements 500-1
Alex Labbe 1000-1
Josh Williams 1000-1
JJ Yeley 1000-1
Gray Gaulding 1000-1
Landon Cassill 1000-1