2018 NBA Draft prospect rankings: Duke's Marvin Bagley ahead of Michael Porter

It'll be a conversation had in NBA draft circles continuously until a Thursday night in late June 2018, when Adam Silver strides to a podium and gives us our answer:

Who's No. 1?

The 2018 NBA Draft does not have the depth of the 2017 draft, but it has a much stronger top tier. That top tier, in my view, has six players: Duke's Marvin Bagley III, Texas' Mo Bamba, Missouri's Michael Porter Jr., Arizona's DeAndre Ayton, Alabama's Collin Sexton and the Slovenian wing currently starring in the Spanish professional league, Luka Doncic.

In past drafts, it's been pretty clear leading up to draft night who the No. 1 overall pick was going to be. As deep as last year's draft was, conventional wisdom pretty clearly had separated Markelle Fultz from the pack. (It remains to be seen just how wise that conventional wisdom actually was.) The year before, Ben Simmons was the clear, obvious No. 1 pick. Ditto for Karl-Anthony Towns the year before that. When Andrew Wiggins went first overall in 2014, there was plenty of debate leading up to draft night whether that pick should instead be Joel Embiid -- but Embiid's surgery six days before the pack made certain that the lower-risk Wiggins would get the top spot.

There is more uncertainty as to who the No. one overall pick is going to be in the 2018 draft than there's been for any draft since 2013.

But it's for totally different reasons. The 2013 draft simply didn't have any clear standouts near the top. (Kudos to the Milwaukee Bucks for taking the single best player in that draft at the 15 slot, a fellow by the name of Giannis Antetokounmpo.) Anthony Bennett first overall (yikes), but going into that draft, nobody knew who it would be: Bennett, or Victor Oladipo, or Alex Len, or Nerlens Noel.

This draft? It feels just as uncertain who'll be the No. 1 pick as it did back in 2013, but it's because there's too much possibly franchise-changing talent at the top instead of not enough. My pick for No. 1 is currently Bagley. He's dominating college basketball at age 18, and he's only going to get better, one of the most athletic and mobile near-seven-footers in human history. I had originally thought Porter would be the No. 1 pick; it feels safe to say that his back surgery has introduced an element of risk to his potential that he's likely no longer in contention. Ayton is a physical marvel with a dizzying offensive skill set who plenty consider the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. And some are in the camp of Doncic, an incredibly intelligent and mature basketball player who at age 18 is dominating a league filled with grown men. And while I think both of them are long shots to be No. 1, Sexton and Bamba are both elite-level prospects.

So be ready for some fun arguments over the next six months. Because the name who Adam Silver will call first is far from a sure thing.

NBA Draft prospect rankings

RKPLAYERSCHOOLYEARPOSHTWT
1 Marvin Bagley III Duke Fr PF 6-11 234
2 Luka Doncic INTL - SG 6-6 228
3 Deandre Ayton Arizona Fr C 7-1 260
4 Michael Porter Jr. Missouri Fr SF 6-10 215
5 Mohamed Bamba Texas Fr PF 6-11 225
6 Collin Sexton Alabama Fr PG 6-3 190
7 Jaren Jackson Jr. Michigan St. Fr PF 6-11 242
8 Kevin Knox Kentucky Fr SF 6-9 215
9 Lonnie Walker IV Miami (Fla.) Fr SG 6-5 204
10 Miles Bridges Michigan St. Soph SF 6-7 230
11 Robert Williams Texas A&M Soph PF 6-10 240
12 Trevon Duval Duke Fr PG 6-3 186
13 Mikal Bridges Villanova Jr SF 6-7 210
14 Wendell Carter Jr. Duke Fr PF 6-10 259
15 Hamidou Diallo Kentucky Fr SF 6-5 198
16 Gary Trent Jr. Duke Fr SG 6-6 209
17 Kris Wilkes UCLA Fr SF 6-8 195
18 PJ Washington Kentucky Fr PF 6-7 236
19 Brandon McCoy UNLV Fr C 7-0 250
20 Grayson Allen Duke Sr SG 6-5 205
21 Jarred Vanderbilt Kentucky Fr SF 6-9 214
22 Rui Hachimura Gonzaga Soph SF 6-8 225
23 Chimezie Metu USC Jr PF 6-11 225
24 Mitchell Robinson N/A Fr C 6-3 -
25 Austin Wiley Auburn Soph C 6-11 260
26 Jalen Brunson Villanova Jr PG 6-2 190
27 Bruce Brown Jr. Miami (Fla.) Soph SG 6-5 190
28 Anfernee Simons IMG ACADEMY - SG 6-3 165
29 Allonzo Trier Arizona Jr SG 6-5 205
30 Shake Milton SMU Jr PG 6-6 205
31 Troy Brown Oregon Fr SG 6-7 215
32 Trae Young Oklahoma Fr PG 6-2 180
33 Billy Preston Kansas Fr PF 6-10 240
34 Chris Smith UCLA Fr SF 6-9 200
35 Dzanan Musa INTL - SF 6-9 187
36 Khyri Thomas Creighton Jr SG 6-3 210
37 Yante Maten Georgia Sr PG 6-8 243
38 Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. Baylor Sr C 7-0 225
39 Rawle Alkins Arizona Soph SG 6-5 220
40 Omer Yurtseven NC State Soph C 7-0 245
41 Jacob Evans III Cincinnati Jr SF 6-6 210
42 Angel Delgado Seton Hall Sr PF 6-10 245
43 Aaron Holiday UCLA Jr PG 6-1 185
44 Bonzie Colson Notre Dame Sr SF 6-6 224
45 Landry Shamet Wichita St. Soph PG 6-4 180
46 Rodions Kurucs INTL - SF 6-9 205
47 Nick Richards Kentucky Fr C 6-11 240
48 Jaylen Adams St. Bona. Sr PG 6-2 190
49 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Kentucky Fr PG 6-6 180
50 Alize Johnson Missouri St. Sr PF 6-9 203
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