LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers take on Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat on Sunday evening. The two teams square off in Game 6 of the 2020 NBA Finals, with the Lakers leading the series by a 3-2 margin. The Heat project to be without Goran Dragic (foot), with the veteran guard listed as doubtful. Despite limping in Game 5, Anthony Davis (heel) is listed as probable for Los Angeles.
Game 6 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET. William Hill lists Los Angeles as the six-point favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. The over-under for total points is set at 214.5, down two points from the opening line. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 6, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It's also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -6
- Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 214.5 points
- Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -270, Heat +230
- LAL: The Lakers are 3-5-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
- MIA: The Heat are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers are a dynamic offensive team, and that has been on display against Miami. Los Angeles is scoring 1.164 points per possessions in the NBA Finals, posting a 65.5 percent assist rate and generating 1.79 assists for every turnover. In addition, the Lakers boast a 58.7 true shooting percentage against Miami, and Los Angeles is dominating the glass on both ends. The Lakers are grabbing 32.4 percent of their own misses and, on the defensive side, Los Angeles is holding Miami to only a 19.2 percent offensive rebound rate. Frank Vogel's team is also No. 3 in the NBA Playoffs in free throw rate, helping to maintain elite overall efficiency.
Defensively, the Lakers ranked in the top three of the NBA in allowing only 1.07 points per possession during the regular season. Los Angeles has a difficult task against a tremendous Miami offense, but the Lakers are generating a turnover on 14.8 percent of possessions in the series. In transition, the Lakers are also elite, ranking No. 2 in the playoffs in allowing only 8.5 fast break points per game, and Los Angeles has been even better in holding Miami to only 6.2 fast break points per game in the series.
Why the Heat can cover
Though the Lakers have two superstars, Butler has arguably been the best player in the series to this point. The 31-year-old is averaging 29.0 points, 10.2 assists and 8.6 rebounds per game, and Butler's efficiency is off the charts, making 56 percent of his field goal attempts and 92 percent of his free throws. Butler presents issues for the Lakers defensively, and he is the biggest reason that Miami is one of the best teams in the NBA at getting to the free throw line. In addition, the Heat present high-level shooting, headlined by Duncan Robinson, and Robinson buried seven triples in the team's Game 5 win.
Defensively, Miami has struggled against the high-powered Los Angeles offense, but the Heat do rank in the top-five among playoff teams in allowing only 34.9 percent of opposing three-pointers to be converted. The Heat will need to continue their perimeter effectiveness in a pivotal Game 6.
How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Kyle Kuzma and Kendrick Nunn projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.