The Dallas Mavericks will try to avoid elimination on Sunday when they return to the court for Game 6 of their first-round playoff series against the Los Angeles Clippers. After evening the series at 2-2, the Mavericks were blown out of Game 5, 154-111, on Tuesday. They'll move forward without Kristaps Porzingis (knee), who has been ruled out for the rest of the series. The Mavericks enter Sunday's contest averaging 121 points per game in the postseason.
Tip-off is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists Los Angeles as a 10.5-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points expected, is 238 in the latest Mavericks vs. Clippers odds. Before you make any Clippers vs. Mavericks picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 59-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. It's also 7-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Clippers vs. Mavericks spread: Los Angeles -10.5
- Clippers vs. Mavericks Over-Under: 238 points
- Clippers vs. Mavericks moneyline: Los Angeles -600, Dallas +450
- LAC: Kawhi Leonard ranks second in the NBA in scoring in the playoffs (32.8 points per game)
- DAL: Luka Doncic leads the NBA in total assists (43) in the postseason
Why the Clippers can cover
Kawhi Leonard is playing at a championship level again this season. Last year's NBA Finals MVP is averaging 32.8 points per game in the playoffs. That ranks second behind Utah's Donovan Mitchell (37.6). Leonard also is averaging 1.8 steals per game, which ranks fifth.
Behind Leonard, the Clippers have been prolific on offense against the Mavericks. Los Angeles leads the league in scoring in the postseason, averaging 129.8 points per game. The Clippers also rank second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the playoffs, at 122.9 points per 100 possessions.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Tuesday's blowout was more of an aberration than a trend in matchups this season between the teams. Though Dallas is 2-6 against the Clippers this season, the Mavericks have lost by double digits to L.A. just three times. Prior to Game 5, the average margin of victory between the teams this season was 4.9 points.
According to advanced analytics, Dallas has the best offense in NBA history. The Mavericks averaged 115.9 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. That set the record for the best single-season NBA rating, breaking the mark set last season by the Golden State Warriors.
How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with George and Leonard combining for 51 points and only one Dallas player surpassing 20 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Clippers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread cashes well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Clippers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.