The Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz will square off on Tuesday evening in the 2020 NBA Playoffs, with the Nuggets in a must-win scenario. After three consecutive victories, the Jazz hold a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven clash. Now Denver is searching for answers as it looks to extend its season. From an injury standpoint, Gary Harris (hip) is listed as questionable for Denver, with Will Barton (knee) ruled out. For Utah, Ed Davis (knee) and Justin Wright-Foreman (not with team) will miss Game 5.
HP Field House in Orlando will host this 6:30 p.m. ET tip. Utah is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Jazz odds at William Hill, down half a point from the opening line. The over-under is set at 219. Before making any Jazz vs. Nuggets picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 59-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. It's also 7-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Nuggets vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -2.5
- Nuggets vs. Jazz over-under: 219 points
- Nuggets vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -140, Nuggets +120
- DEN: The Nuggets are 6-6 against the spread in the last 12 games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 6-6 against the spread in the last 12 games
Why the Nuggets can cover
While the Nuggets are struggling on defense in the series, Denver is creating efficient shots on a consistent basis. The Nuggets are scoring 119.2 points per 100 possessions, a clip that would have led the entire NBA during the regular season, and Denver's offensive surge is keyed by Jamal Murray. The talented guard is averaging 28.0 points, 6.5 assists and 6.0 rebounds per game, and the Nuggets are also posting the best offensive rebound rate in the postseason, grabbing 32.3 percent of available rebounds after missed shots.
Defensively, the Nuggets were pedestrian during the regular season, allowing 111 points per 100 possessions. In this series, however, Denver is likely due for some positive regression, as it has allowed a startling 131 points per 100 possessions against a normally solid, yet unspectacular, Utah offense.
Why the Jazz can cover
Simply put, Donovan Mitchell is playing the best basketball of his career and, with Harris potentially unavailable and Barton out of action, the Nuggets don't have any answers against him on the perimeter. Mitchell, who is averaging 39.5 points and 5.8 assists per game in the series, leads a Jazz offense that is scorching hot right now, with Utah leading the NBA Playoffs in offensive rating at more than 131 points per 100 possessions.
Specifically, the Jazz have been able to create efficient looks, building off their No. 2 ranking in shooting efficiency in the regular season and posting a league-leading 61.6 percent effective field-goal percentage against Denver. On the other end, it hasn't been great for the Jazz, with the Nuggets scoring at an elite rate on a per-possession basis. However, Utah can fall back on a baseline of defensive success, with top-12 marks in shooting efficiency allowed, free throw rate allowed, defensive rebound rate and points allowed per possession in the regular season.
How to make Jazz vs. Nuggets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Mitchell and Murray projected to exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Jazz vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Jazz spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.