The 2021 NBA Finals continue on Saturday as the series shifts back to Phoenix all knotted up at 2-2. The home team has won in all four games so far this series and the Suns will look to take control once again after racing out to a 2-0 lead. However, the Bucks will be operating with a lot of confidence as Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to dominate since coming back from a knee injury to begin the series.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET and Phoenix is the four-point favorite in the latest Suns vs. Bucks odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the total is at 218. The home team has covered the spread in each of the first four games of the series, but the Suns have been the much better team against the number overall, going 56-36 against the spread. The Bucks are just 43-48 ATS this season. Before finalizing any Suns vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $600 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the second week of the 2021 NBA Finals on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Bucks vs. Suns spread: Suns -4
- Bucks vs. Suns over-under: 218 points
- Bucks vs. Suns money line: Suns -165, Bucks +145
- MIL: The Bucks are 3-6 against the spread in the last nine road games
- PHX: The Suns are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight home games
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee's defense is the backbone of its overall effectiveness. The Bucks are the No. 1 team in the 2021 NBA Playoffs in defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to 106.4 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee is also elite on the defensive glass, grabbing almost 77 percent of available defensive rebounds in the series and 76.3 percent in the playoffs. The Bucks are creating a turnover on 13.8 percent of Phoenix's offensive possessions, generating real havoc, and Milwaukee is averaging 7.8 steals per game in the finals.
In zooming out to the full postseason, the Bucks lead the NBA in free-throw rate allowed (.200) and points allowed in the paint (38.7 per game), with Milwaukee scoring 11.7 more points in the paint per game than Phoenix. Finally, the Bucks are dynamite in specialized situations, yielding only 8.3 fast break points per game in the postseason and also limiting the Suns to just 8.8 second-chance points allowed through four games.
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix won by double-digits in each of its first two home games of the series, putting up 118 points in each contest and playing efficient offensively with Chris Paul leading the charge. Paul had 32 points and nine assists in Game 1 and followed it up with 23 points and eight assists in Game 2.
Paul was limited to 29 points and 16 assists in two games in Milwaukee but a return home should give Paul a boost. Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton and Devin Booker will both have huge roles to play with Ayton shooting 57.5 percent from the floor and Booker averaging 27.5 points per game this series.
How to make Bucks vs. Suns picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Antetokounmpo and Booker projected to exceed their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the NBA Finals Game 5 spread has all the value. You can get this pick only at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.