The eyes of the sports world will be on Fiserv Forum on Tuesday evening. The venue will host Game 6 of the 2021 NBA Finals, with the Milwaukee Bucks welcoming the Phoenix Suns to town. Milwaukee leads the best-of-seven series by a 3-2 margin, and the Bucks can close out the proceedings with a home win. Phoenix aims to stop a three-game skid and keep its season going with a victory.
Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. The latest Bucks vs. Suns odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Milwaukee as a five-point favorite. The over-under for total points expected is 222. The Bucks are 3-2 against the spread this series, while the over has hit three times, compared to one under and one push for the total. Before finalizing any Suns vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA Finals 2021 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $600 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the final week of the 2021 NBA Finals on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5
- Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 222 points
- Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -200, Suns +175
- PHX: The Suns are 6-3 against the spread in the last nine road game
- MIL: The Bucks are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven home games
Why the Suns can cover
Though home-court advantage can be critical, Phoenix is one of the best road teams in the NBA. The Suns are 30-16 away from their home venue this season, and they also have the star power that should translate in any locale. Devin Booker is averaging 30.0 points per game in the series and, as evidenced by his 40-point outburst in Game 5, he is capable of exploding at any moment. Chris Paul (21.0 points, 8.8 assists) and Deandre Ayton (15.2 points, 13.2 rebounds) have also been productive in the series, and the Suns are scoring more than 1.15 points per possession against Milwaukee.
Though Phoenix has struggled defensively, the Suns were a top-seven defensive team during the regular season, and the Bucks are prone to spells of uneven 3-point shooting that nearly cost them against Brooklyn and Atlanta. Game 6 should be an inspired effort from a Suns team that faces elimination, and they have the two-way ability to make life difficult on Milwaukee.
Why the Bucks can cover
Phoenix is a stellar road team, but Milwaukee still has the clear advantage at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are an impressive 35-11 at home this season, including a 9-1 mark in the 2021 NBA Playoffs when playing against top-tier opponents. Moreover, Milwaukee is out-scoring its opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions in playoff home games, including a staggering defensive rating of 100.3 points allowed per 100 possessions.
The Bucks aren't shooting the lights out at home, but they are securing more than 53 percent of all available rebounds, including 31.9 percent of their own misses. Opponents are also shooting just 43.5 percent from the field and 30.9 percent from 3-point range at Fiserv Forum in the playoffs. Finally, opposing teams are generating only 18.6 assists and committing 14.8 turnovers per game when playing against Milwaukee on the road, feeding into the Bucks' inherent advantages in the possession battle on a nightly basis.
How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 217 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get that NBA Finals Game 6 pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Suns vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bucks vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.