The 2021 NBA Playoffs continue on Sunday night with the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks hosting the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers in Game 4 of the Western Conference quarterfinals. Dallas holds a 2-1 series lead but the Clippers are coming off an impressive 118-108 win in Game 3 where their superstars came alive. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined for 65 points on 24-of-35 shooting in that victory to keep the Clippers from going down 3-0.
However, the Clippers still don't have an answer for Luka Doncic, who poured in 44 points on Friday and is now averaging 38.0 points, 9.0 assists and 8.7 assists per game in this series. Los Angeles is a three-point favorite with the over-under for total points listed at 221 in the latest Clippers vs. Mavericks odds at William Hill Sportsbook. Before locking in any Mavericks vs. Clippers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $800 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the first full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen massive returns.
- Clippers vs. Mavericks odds: Clippers -3
- Clippers vs. Mavericks over-under total: 221 points
- Clippers vs. Mavericks money line: Clippers -165, Mavericks +145
- LAC: The Clippers have covered the spread in seven of the last nine meetings in Dallas.
- DAL: The Mavericks have covered four of five games as an underdog.
Why the Clippers can cover
Despite being down 2-1, the Clippers have shot the ball well throughout the series (51.6 percent from the floor) and have gotten big production from their two superstars, with Leonard averaging 34.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists and George putting up 26.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per contest. Unfortunately the ancillary scoring hasn't been there, with Reggie Jackson averaging 11.0 points per game to lead all other Clippers.
However, Jackson and Marcus Morris were both knocking down shots in Game 3, with Jackson scoring 16 points on 4-of-10 shooting from the 3-point line, while Morris scored 15 on 3-of-5 shooting from deep. With Leonard and George requiring so much attention, if Los Angeles can continue to get its role players to knock down open looks, the Clippers should be able to continue taking advantage of a Dallas defense that ranked 20th in defensive rating this season.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Doncic has been the most dominant force in this series thus far, averaging 9.0 assists and 8.7 rebounds per game in addition to the aforementioned 38.0 points per game. Doncic is shooting 51.9 percent from the floor and 45.9 percent from the 3-point line and the Clippers don't have a natural answer for the 22-year-old.
Kristaps Porzingis has had a limited impact thus far, averaging 11.7 points and 3.7 rebounds per game despite playing 34.0 minutes per contest. Dallas will be looking for more from Porzingis, but the play of Tim Hardaway Jr. has helped soften his disappointing performance. Hardaway is averaging 20.3 points per game and shooting a staggering 65.2 percent from the 3-point line and if the Mavericks can stay hot from deep, the Clippers should struggle to truly get back into this series.
How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 224 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Clippers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.