The Atlanta Hawks welcome the Philadelphia 76ers to State Farm Arena for a pivotal matchup on Friday. After the two teams split the first two contests, the Hawks and Sixers square off for control of the series in Game 3. Trae Young leads the Hawks, with Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris leading the Sixers. Embiid (knee) is officially listed as questionable for the 76ers, with De'Andre Hunter (knee) and Cam Reddish (Achilles) out for the Hawks.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. William Hill Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as 1.5-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 224.5 in the latest Sixers vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any Hawks vs. Sixers picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference semifinals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- 76ers vs. Hawks spread: 76ers -1.5
- 76ers vs. Hawks over-under: 224.5 points
- 76ers vs. Hawks money line: 76ers -125, Hawks +105
- PHI: The Sixers are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- ATL: The Hawks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Sixers can cover
The postseason is marked by small sample sizes, but the Sixers are clearly the stronger team on paper. Philadelphia was the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA this season, allowing only 1.07 points per possession. The Sixers led the NBA in steals (9.1 per game), with the No. 2 mark in blocks (6.2 per game), and Philadelphia was a top-three team in overall turnover creation, forcing a giveaway on 15.4 percent of possessions. Philadelphia also finished in the top five in field goal percentage allowed (45.3 percent) and assists allowed (23.5 per game).
On the offensive side, the Sixers weren't quite as dominant in the grand scheme, but they lived at the free throw line in the regular season, taking 25.5 attempts per game. Philadelphia was also a top-10 team in field goal percentage (47.6 percent), 3-point percentage (37.4 percent) and offensive rebound rate (27.7 percent). In addition, Philadelphia is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games against the Hawks.
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta is a potent offensive team, led by Young. Young is averaging 28.9 points and 10.0 assists per game so far in the playoffs, and the Hawks were a top-10 offensive team in the regular season, scoring more than 1.14 points per possession. Young leads an attack that ranked in the top five in both free throw attempts (24.2 per game) and accuracy (81.2 percent) in the regular season, and the Hawks have plenty of shooting firepower. In fact, the Hawks boast a 61.2 percent true shooting clip in the series against Philadelphia.
Defensively, Atlanta is a little more vulnerable on paper, but the Hawks are playing notably better basketball in the playoffs. The Hawks are yielding just 107.2 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, a very strong rate, and Atlanta also finished as a top-three team during the regular season in 3-point prevention (34.9 percent). Rebounding is also a strength of the Hawks, with Clint Capela leading the NBA in rebounds (14.3 per game) and the team finishing in the top 10 in both offensive rebound rate (28.4 percent) and defensive rebound rate (74.2 percent).
How to make Hawks vs. Sixers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 220 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Sixers vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.