UPDATE: Carmelo Anthony has reportedly informed Phil Jackson he wants to remain with the Knicks. In the event he's being untruthful, below are eight possible teams that would make sense for Melo.
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Maybe we were always going to wind up here.
Maybe there was no other way than for the Knicks to wind up wrapped in a power play between their two icons, Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony, while the team toils in sub-.500 miserable mediocrity. This isn't a sudden rupture, but instead a slow buildup that has inevitably resulted in this week's volcano. The Knicks' starting point guard vanished before a game, without contacting anyone while reportedly considering walking away from the game for a time, and that isn't even the biggest controversy.
It has been going on for years. Anthony was never invested in the triangle and has constantly rebuked suggestions at changing his game. Then came Jackson's comments about Anthony's good friend LeBron James' posse, which crossed racial lines, and that seems like it could have been the last straw for Anthony. Then came more comments about Anthony ball-stopping, and Anthony saying Jackson's negativity has been a problem.
Things boiled over this past weekend. Charley Rosen is a former assistant coach and essentially Jackson's ghostwriter, and he penned a column (which, notably, did not cite Jackson or anyone else in the Knicks as a source) which torched Anthony's effort, diminished game and his approach. It also suggested that he might waive his no-trade clause for the Clippers, Cavaliers or (speculatively) the Lakers.
Anthony fired back, believing strongly that Rosen's comments were leaked from Jackson. He made it clear that he still is not interested in waiving his no-trade clause, but it's also clear that he and Jackson, if they do not have a pow-wow to clear the situation up, are headed for an irreconcilable divide.
So here we are. Anthony wants to remain in New York, but he's also pretty clearly getting sick of not just being in a toxic situation, but dealing with constant criticism from within and outside the organization.
The most likely outcome here is that Anthony continues to refuse to be traded and somehow outlasts Jackson. After all, Anthony has outlasted Amar'e Stoudemire, Jeremy Lin, Mike D'Antoni and every other threat to his total control. He's just too ingrained and carries too much power. He's a New York icon, despite having won exactly one playoff series since arriving in 2011. However, let's look at some possibilities if Anthony did decide he was ready for a new chapter in his career, which, on some level, is starting to look at least plausible.
We're throwing out the Cavaliers. They won a title with Kevin Love. They don't have the money to send anyone else back in a trade. There's just no way to make that kind of a deal, and he wouldn't really fit anyway.
From there ...
( All deals via ESPN's Trade Machine.)
THE CELTICS
Plus the Nets' 2018 first-round pick. (Boston retains swap rights to its 2017 pick.)
Boston's thought process: Celtics fans, I hear you hissing. I do. Put your pitchforks down and just hear me out a second. Think about what you're not giving up here. You keep the 2017 Nets pick and still get to take a top-three player in this June's draft. You keep Avery Bradley. You keep both your All-Stars, Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford. You only send one pick. Yes, it's hard to let go of Smart. Yes, it's harder to let go of Crowder. And yes, this fails to solve your defensive issues and could exacerbate them.
But here's what the benefits are:
1. It's an available star. Those just don't come very often. There aren't any real stars available otherwise. If the choice is "Melo or continue to be a doormat for the Cavaliers and possibly not even reach the Conference finals," then you have to weigh how much you're willing to be sub-elite with the team you have now. By the way, as I wrote here, there's a time crunch. Bradley and Thomas are both up at the end of next season, along with Smart. This gets you a guy under contract now.
2. He's a high-level crunch-time scorer. The Celtics have Mr. Fourth Quarter Isaiah Thomas (even though they are actually outscored per 100 possessions in the fourth with him on the floor and are way better with him off), but at 5-feet-9, in a playoff environment, there has to be some concern about his ability to navigate the trees. If nothing else, Anthony provides a weapon to keep the spacing up and draw gravity away from Thomas. The Celtics' offense is already great, but there's regular-season scoring and there's crunch-time, half-court possession basketball. Melo would help them in that regard.
3. The culture and system could make the most of him. The Celtics have been bad defensively this season, but we know there's a good defensive team in there; there were top-five last season. If they can get back to that level of play, and just get buy-in from Anthony, that could be enough to make them playoff dangerous. And if anyone can get Anthony to buy in and sacrifice the way he never has, Brad Stevens and Danny Ainge should be the ones, right? Maybe a call from Paul Pierce to grease the wheels a bit?
4. You also get Courtney Lee. Feel free to sub in Bradley for Smart in the scenario and tweak the deal accordingly. By adding Lee the Celtics get a much-needed taller wing defender who can still shoot. He's basically discount Avery Bradley. It also means a different look to their three-guard lineups which have been disastrous this season.
Melo's thought process: It's an iconic franchise that gives him a chance to compete right now. He's not jumping on a Cavs bandwagon, he'll still get paid, he'll still get superstar billing. He would have great coaching (if he accepts it), star teammates, and he would get to remain on the East Coast. This keeps him close to New York, gets him on a winner, and it means he only has to get past the Cavs to reach the NBA Finals.
The Knicks' thought process: Lord, yes, please, immediately. A likely top-five pick, a point guard to build around long-term, Crowder's defense and shooting, Amir Johnson's defense and versatility. This is a home run for them. These guys can't run the triangle, but who cares? This would be a terrific haul.
Is it worth it? Not for Boston, not with Melo 32 years old. He has always wanted things his way and if he throws his weight around and breaks the offense, that's going to frustrate guys. It's a huge defensive downgrade, and even with Courtney Lee you can't mitigate the damage. They're better off hoping for other moonshots to come available.
THE PISTONS
How appropriate is this? Melo returns to the team that had the chance to draft him only to take Darko Milicic. Stan Van Gundy carries credit for his past successes and the Pistons' unstable mess gets resolved.
Pistons' thought process: Drummond has been really worrisome the past two seasons. He just doesn't commit mentally game to game. The Pistons' defense is nine points worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Yes, Drummond is young, healthy and supremely talented, but if you have real questions about whether he'll get it or not, this is a deal worth considering. Think of how Van Gundy's stretch-four ball-handler sets could work with Anthony dishing to shooters? Noah's contract is an albatross and tough for the Pistons to swallow, but he also brings a veteran work ethic and has played a little better of late.
Is Harris too much to deal? Maybe. You can take out Harris and Noah and do Drummond for Anthony straight up if you're willing to go without a starting-caliber center for the rest of the season. This would be a huge gamble, but it also shakes up a team that looks fundamentally rattled right now.
Melo's thought process: A playoff team with upside, a good defensive team and a hard-edged city. It's a gamble on his part, but if it's the best option out there, he's in a good situation to win with lower expectations.
New York's thought process: Drummond and Kristaps Porzingis destroy everything in their path over the next five years. If they get Harris, all the better, they can run those three in the triangle. You get a young, athletic player on a long-term contract? Even with the free-throw issues, you jump at that.
Is it worth it? Not for the Pistons, who kind of have to take the long view with Drummond. Not for Anthony, who won't want to be that far from a coast, especially for a non-contender.
THE RAPTORS
The Clippers' lottery-protected first-round pick goes to New York.
The Raptors' thought process: Hey, legit scorer, you keep DeMarre Carroll, it solves your power forward issues, you keep Patrick Patterson for depth, you get Kyle O'Quinn to fill in at center and you take your shot at the Cavs. You roll all your dice on this one and hope that with three All-Star weapons, that gets you over the top, at least in the East.
Melo's thought process: You're still on the East Coast, sort of (closer than Detroit, anyway). You get to compete for a title. You play with the best team and best teammates you've ever had. This isn't a big change, it's just a chance to really make a run at the East crown.
The Knicks' thought process: Valanciunas and Porzingis could work well together as a 4-5 combo, especially in the triangle. Ross is a versatile defender who can shoot on a cheap deal. You get a pick, too. This works nicely.
Is it worth it? Not from the Raptors' perspective. They can't afford to slip at all on defense, and will there be enough usage to spread the ball around? Plus, is Masai Ujiri really going to want to trade for the guy who forced his way out of Denver in Ujiri's first GM stint with the Nuggets? Melo also probably turns it down because of the taxes in Toronto.
THE CLIPPERS
OK, so the easy way is to imagine them dealing Blake Griffin, but that seems really unlikely. If you want that construct, though, here goes:
Throw in a Knicks unprotected first-rounder in 2020 as well. Dealing first-round picks will make Knicks fans queasy, but you're unlikely to get a player of Griffin's caliber with that pick anyway.
From the Clippers' perspective: It doesn't make much sense for the Clippers, and would have to be because the current situation just became poisonous, which it doesn't appear to be. If they were going to deal Griffin, it would make sense, just from the perspective that the Clippers want to win now, right now, and Melo is the quickest replacement option to go from A to B. He also fits Doc Rivers' preferred option of having players who were great in 2010. By surrounding Chris Paul with three floor spacers plus DeAndre Jordan, you might unlock something even better.
From Melo's perspective: For Anthony, this is clearly the best option. He stays in a major market and selling his family on L.A. is a lot easier than, say, Cleveland. He gets to play with good friend Chris Paul and compete at a high level with the Clippers and a Hall of Fame coach. This is the best of all worlds for Melo.
From the Knicks' perspective: Griffin and Porzingis? And they get veteran scorer Jamal Crawford? This instantly changes the whole feel of the team, and Griffin might be great with Jeff Hornacek; he might even work in the triangle if Jackson stays and gets his way by pushing that.
Does it make sense? No, because no trade involving the Clippers moving Griffin makes sense.
THE BULLS
The Knicks are going to have to send a conditional first-rounder here. It doesn't seem fair, but Jimmy Butler is like Anthony, if Carmelo were in his prime, more efficient and played defense.
From the Bulls' perspective: Well this is just madness, but then, the very notion of trading Butler is madness and yet Butler keeps being mentioned in trade talks. They get Jennings to take the place of Rajon Rondo and hopefully bring some stability to point guard. And now the Bulls have two of the Banana Boat Friends with Chris Paul a free agent this summer. And they get that first-rounder, which, with the Knicks, is always potentially valuable. Giving up Mirotic is tough, but he has had a rough season and hasn't really developed the way they hoped.
From Melo's perspective: Big city, playing with Wade, better roster. It's a pretty snug fit. He almost joined the Bulls in free agency, so this makes a lot of sense.
From the Knicks' perspective: Huge, gigantic win. They make out like bandits here. They get the same Rose-Butler problems the Bulls have but they'll trade their problems for that anytime.
Is it worth it for Chicago? No. In fact, if the Bulls start to seriously consider this deal, their management should handcuff themselves to a radiator until after the deadline.
THE MAVERICKS
Dallas throws in a lottery-protected first-round pick.
From the Mavs' perspective: This is like taking out a line of credit when your Mom and Pop drug store is starting to fail with Wal-Mart in town. It extends the life of the Mavericks as an actual competitive club and might actually help get them into the playoffs. Anthony and Harrison Barnes are a little redundant, but whatever, Carlisle can figure out something.
From Melo's perspective: Dallas is an East Coast city in central Texas, he gets to play with Dirk Nowitzki and Barnes and it's a high-upside situation with low expectations.
From the Knicks' perspective: They get back very little, but think of it this way: Matthews immediately helps their defensive profile and Bogut clears $11 million off their books this summer. The conditional first-rounder sweetens the deal.
Is it worth it? The Knicks probably say no here. It's just not enough. They don't get a high-value pick or a young prospect out of it.
THE GRIZZLIES
From the Grizzlies' perspective: Their problem is offense. Melo's strength is offense. They deal Randolph, which is painful, but they keep Tony Allen and their core. Memphis probably gets a legitimate chance at contending with this move. However, will Anthony move the ball enough in a system that shares like David Fizdale's?
From Melo's perspective: "Hey, honey! I know you're a celebrity author and fashion mogul, so I have great news for you. We're moving to Memphis!" Yeah, see, the basketball here is great for him, but Memphis is not really his speed.
From the Knicks' perspective: The Grizzlies don't have a first-rounder to send, or a quality prospect. JaMychal Green might be a good returning piece instead of Wright. However, notice that the Knicks clear close to $18 million this summer with that deal. That's cap flexibility they really need.
Is it worth it? Not for the Grizzlies, who don't want to move either of the veterans, not for Melo, who wants a better market, and not for the Knicks, who want a better key asset return than future cap space.
THE LAKERS
From the Lakers' perspective: They could use a shot in the arm and Melo is it. Their management knows their jobs are in danger if they don't pull this thing out of the fire and Anthony is a quick and easy way to do so. They keep D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle in this instance and they get a better defensive player in Lee.
From Melo's perspective: Sure, he won't win a title, but he gets to stick it to Jackson by succeeding and having fun with the Lakers, and enjoy the L.A. scene.
From the Knicks' perspective: Clarkson is a talented, young prospect, which is great return. Deng is a veteran and Lou Williams is having a great year. This is a really good haul for Anthony, even if they would rather have a pick.
Is it worth it? The Lakers try to skip steps but it won't actually get them anywhere. The Knicks probably want more in return.
So you see the problems with finding a deal. To make a deal that makes sense for the Knicks, with a team that needs Melo, and is a good enough environment to get Anthony to clear his no-trade deal, well, it's challenging. There are possibilities out there. But the most likely scenario is still Anthony staying in New York for the foreseeable future.
