Bogdan Bogdanovic may not be headed to the Milwaukee Bucks, after all. The sign-and-trade hit a major snag on Wednesday when The Athletic's Sam Amick reported that Bogdanovic himself had not agreed to the trade. As he is a restricted free agent, a sign-and-trade would only be possible if he agreed to a contract with the Bucks. As he apparently has not, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that he will enter restricted free agency on Friday.
Bogdanovic could in theory find a preferable contract there, but his status as a restricted free agent complicates matters. The Kings have the right to match any offer sheet he signs with another team. However, if that happens, they cannot immediately trade him to Milwaukee or anyone else. He is treated like any other free agent, and cannot be dealt until midway through the 2020-21 season. The Hawks, Knicks, Pistons and Hornets are the teams with enough cap space to make competitive offers to Bogdanovic on the open market, but more teams may emerge as sign-and-trade possibilities.
The Bucks may still emerge with Bogdanovic. We don't yet know what other offers he will get, or whether or not the Kings will be able to use his restricted status as leverage to get him to agree to join the Bucks. It should be noted, though, that the Bucks are operating with a major financial impediment. If they do indeed trade for Bogdanovic, they become hard-capped at that luxury tax apron of $138,928,000. They could not cross that salary threshold for any reason, and with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and now, Jrue Holiday, they are somewhat limited in what they can offer Bogdanovic while also keeping the rest of their roster in mind.
If a deal falls through, the Kings would miss out on Donte DiVincenzo, D.J. Wilson and Ersan Ilyasova. The Bucks could theoretically shop that package to other teams, either for free agents in sign-and-trade scenarios or to players under contract elsewhere. Still, the Bucks and Kings are probably trying to find a way to salvage this situation as we speak and get Bogdanovic to Milwaukee.
By no means should that deal be considered done. If anything, the possibility exists that these reports are a smokescreen to sidestep a possible tampering investigation, as the deal was reported before Bogdanovic could legally negotiate with the Bucks. At this point, the truth is unknowable. But the Bucks and Kings want to make this happen, and unless some team offers him substantially more money, it seems likely the Bogdanovic would be interested in joining a contending Bucks team.