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USATSI

Fiserv Forum hosts an intriguing playoff showdown on Sunday afternoon. The No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks host the No. 8 seed Miami Heat in Game 1 of a first round battle. Miami finished 44-38 in the regular season and emerged from the play-in after a loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday and a win over the Chicago Bulls on Friday. Milwaukee enjoyed a week of rest before beginning their playoff journey after a 58-win showing in the regular season.

Tipoff is at 5:30 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the 9.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221 in the latest Heat vs. Bucks odds. Before locking in any Bucks vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -9.5
  • Bucks vs. Heat over/under: 221 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -455, Heat +345
  • MIA: The Heat are 15-24-1 against the spread in road games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 23-16-2 against the spread in home games
  • Bucks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Heat can cover

Though Milwaukee is the favorite for a reason, the Bucks do have shortcomings that can be exploited. On defense, Milwaukee creates the fewest turnovers (11.8 per game) in the NBA and, on the offensive end, the Bucks are below-average in turnover avoidance, free throw accuracy, free throw creation and field goal percentage. 

From there, Miami is very strong defensively, allowing fewer than 110 points per game in the regular season. The Heat kept opponents to only 21.1 free throw attempts per game, a top-tier figure, and Miami secured more than 73% of available defensive rebounds. The Heat are also able to create turnovers effectively, including almost 16 takeaways per game and 8.0 steals per contest. The Heat also have a potential edge in free throw accuracy in a close game, with Erik Spoelstra's team ranking No. 3 in the league in converting 83.1% of attempts at the charity stripe. 

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee earned the benefit of home-court advantage throughout the 2023 NBA playoffs, and that begins in Game 1. The Bucks are out-scoring opponents by 6.0 points per 100 possessions at Fiserv Forum, and that includes a tremendous 110.7 defensive rating. Milwaukee also finished in the top five of the NBA in defensive efficiency for the full season, and the Bucks allowed only 1.06 points per possession with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez on the floor together. 

Milwaukee holds opponents to just 45.6% shooting from the field and 51.4% shooting on 2-point attempts, ranking near the top of the NBA in both areas. Opponents also generate only 21.0 free throw attempts and 23.9 assists per game against Milwaukee, and the Bucks have an elite defensive rebound rate (74.5%) to boot. The Bucks are also operating with a substantial rest advantage against an opponent that was forced to play a pair of play-in games, and Milwaukee is 15-4 with a rest advantage this season.

How to make Heat vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.