The Milwaukee Bucks aim for revenge against the Toronto Raptors on Thursday evening. The Bucks (16-12) fell to the Raptors by double-figures at home on Tuesday, dropping their fourth straight games. Toronto (13-15) is playing well, climbing out of a 2-8 hole to start the season with a 10-7 record against Eastern Conference foes. Kyle Lowry (ankle) and Yuta Watanabe (ankle) are questionable to play for the Raptors. Jrue Holiday (protocols) is out for the Bucks.
Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum. The latest Bucks vs. Raptors odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Milwaukee as a 6.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points expected is set at 235.5, up two points from the opening line. Before locking in any Raptors vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up more than $8,400 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 9 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 83-48 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Bucks vs. Raptors spread: Bucks -6.5
- Bucks vs. Raptors over-under: 235.5 points
- Bucks vs. Raptors money line: Bucks -250; Raptors +210
- TOR: The Raptors are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Bucks can cover
The Bucks are tremendous offensively, ranking second in the NBA in points per possession (1.18) and effective field goal percentage (57.4 percent). Milwaukee is also a top-eight team in both turnover rate (13.5 percent) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.92), and the Bucks are led by impressive star power. The Bucks can also attack the offensive glass against a Toronto team that ranks in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (72.0 percent), and the Raptors are second-worst in the league in preventing the opposition from getting to the free throw line.
Milwaukee's defense hasn't been quite as potent as in recent seasons, but the Bucks are still well above-average. The Bucks are a top-six defensive rebounding team, pulling down 74.9 percent of opponent misses, and Mike Budenolzer's team is also fourth in the NBA in free throw rate allowed. The Bucks are also excellent in specialized situations, ranking in the top five of the league in fast break points allowed (9.8 per game), points allowed in paint (43.2 per game) and second-chance points allowed (11.9 per game) this season.
Why the Raptors can cover
Toronto is known for its defensive prowess historically, but in 2020-21 the Raptors are an offense-first squad. Pascal Siakam leads the way in averaging 20.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, and the All-NBA forward is averaging 24.4 points per game in the last ten contests. Fred VanVleet is converting 38 percent of his 3-point attempts on the way to 20.4 points and 6.6 assists per game, and Toronto is scoring nearly 1.16 points per possession in the last 18 games. As a team, the Raptors are No. 8 in the NBA in offensive rating, with above-average marks in both assist rate and turnover rate.
The Bucks rank just 23rd in the NBA in creating turnovers defensively, forcing a giveaway on only 13.0 percent of possessions, and Toronto should be able to get shots to the rim. On the other end, the Bucks rely heavily on shots at the rim, and the Raptors are second in the league in limiting points in the paint, allowing only 40.9 per contest. The Raptors can also take solace in Milwaukee's bottom-five free throw creation rate, and Toronto leads the NBA in turnover creation.
How to make Raptors vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting both teams combine for 225 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Raptors vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.