Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will be out for revenge as they travel to Philadelphia for a rematch against Joel Embiid and a Sixers squad that beat them on their home court just two weeks ago. The Bucks will be without Nikola Mirotic (thumb) and Malcolm Brogdon (foot), while Khris Middleton is listed as probable with knee soreness. Philadelphia is a bit short-handed too, as Joel Embiid (load management), Jimmy Butler (back), J.J. Redick (quad) are all listed as questionable, while James Ennis (quad), has been ruled out. Tipoff for this one is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Wells Fargo Center. Sportsbooks list the Bucks as 4.5-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 230.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Sixers odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Sixers picks, check out the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 25 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 277-216 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 25 on a strong 69-52 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has locked in on Sixers vs. Bucks. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware that the Sixers have been one of sportsbooks' most overrated teams this season, while Milwaukee has been the most undervalued. The Bucks boast an NBA-best 62.2 percent cover rate against-the-spread on the year, while Philadelphia's 46.2 percent mark is the sixth-worst in the NBA.
Milwaukee also has the NBA's best road record (26-14) and the second-best cover rate (59 percent) against-the-spread when playing on the road. The model also knows that the Sixers have been struggling without Joel Embiid, and his return tonight is far from guaranteed. The Sixers have dropped consecutive games to the Hawks and Mavericks without Embiid, and they were just 1-3 in the four games that he was healthy for prior to their road trip. With the Bucks playing much better heading into this one, it makes sense that Vegas lists them as road favorites.
But just because Milwaukee has been on fire doesn't mean it will cover the Bucks vs. Sixers spread.
The model is also well aware of how important home court advantage has been for the Sixers this season. In fact, their 30-9 home record makes them one of just six teams with single-digit losses at home. Philly is also expected to get Embiid (load management) back. The big man has averaged 35 points, 17 rebounds, and six assists against the Bucks this season.
The Sixers also beat the Bucks in Milwaukee just a couple weeks ago on the back of a monstrous 40-point, 15-rebound performance from Embiid. His return would have a major impact, especially with Milwaukee already without Malcolm Brogdon (foot), Nikola Mirotic (thumb), and potentially Khris Middleton (groin).
So who wins Bucks vs. 76ers? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Sixers vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.