The 2021 NBA Finals continue on Wednesday evening with a pivotal matchup in front of a national audience. The Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Phoenix Suns to Fiserv Forum for Game 4. The Bucks trail 2-1 in the series, though Milwaukee won Game 3 in convincing fashion. Phoenix will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead, while Milwaukee aims to even the score and send things back to Phoenix at 2-2.
Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a 4.5-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221 in the latest Suns vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Suns picks and NBA Finals 2021 predictions, you need to see what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.
Hartstein, who is a regular on The Early Edge podcast, has identified the right side to back in his analysis for the NBA Finals 2021. Hartstein is a blistering 61-33 on his last 94 ATS NBA picks involving the Suns, a stretch that has made $100 bettors more than $2500. He is also a perfect 3-0 so far in the NBA Finals. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.
- Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -4.5
- Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 221 points
- Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -200, Suns +175
- PHX: The Suns are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight road games
- MIL: The Bucks are 5-1 against the spread in the last six home games
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix's two-way dominance has been evident in the playoffs and it also dates back to the regular season. The Suns are scoring nearly six more points per 100 possessions than their opponents in the postseason, with above-average marks on both ends, and that mirrors their full-season play. Phoenix was a top-seven unit on both offense and defense in 2020-21, scoring 116.3 points per 100 possessions and allowing only 110.4 points per 100 possessions defensively.
Shooting is the Suns' calling card, including top-two regular season marks in two-point shooting (56.3 percent), free throw shooting (83.4 percent) and field goal shooting (49.0 percent). From there, Phoenix is among the best teams in the NBA in taking care of the ball, committing only 12.5 turnovers per game during the regular season, and the Suns are a top-five defensive group in limiting opponent 3-point shooting (35.4 percent) and assists (22.9 per game).
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee is a potent team and, after struggling in the first two games, the Bucks flashed some of their considerable upside in Game 3. Led by the heroics of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks shot 48 percent from the floor and 38 percent from 3-point range in the win, making a higher number (77 percent) of their free throws along the way. Milwaukee also increased its passing efficiency, generating 28 assists against only nine turnovers, and the Bucks secured 13 crucial offensive rebounds.
Moreover, that effectiveness on the offensive glass led to 20 second-chance points, while the Suns were limited to only two points in the same category. Using their size advantage, Milwaukee also out-scored Phoenix in the paint by a 54-40 margin, and its overall efficiency was potent. Dating back to the regular season, the Bucks were a top-five team in the NBA on the offensive end, scoring more than 1.16 points per possession, and they followed that formula by excelling at the rim, taking care of the ball and generating additional opportunities by using their size on the glass.
How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks
Hartstein is leaning under on the point total after nailing the total in each of the first three 2021 NBA Finals games. He also sees value on one side, with critical X-factors to keep in mind. He's sharing those NBA Finals 2021 picks only at SportsLine
So who wins Suns vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.