It's down to essentially a three-game series between the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks as Game 5 of the 2021 NBA Finals arrives on Saturday. The home team has had the upper hand all series, winning and covering the spread in all four games. Phoenix will look to continue that trend in Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2. Milwaukee hopes to ride the momentum of leveling the series and will be looking for big nights from Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday to supplement the star power of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET. The Suns vs. Bucks odds from William Hill Sportsbook have held steady with Phoenix listed at -4. The over-under for total points is currently at 218, which is the lowest of the NBA Finals 2021 thus far. Before making any Suns vs. Bucks picks or NBA Finals 2021 predictions, you need to see what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.
Hartstein, who is a regular on The Early Edge podcast, has identified the right side to back in his analysis for the NBA Finals 2021. Hartstein is a blistering 61-34 on his last 95 ATS NBA picks involving the Suns, a stretch that has made $100 bettors more than $2400. He is also 3-1 on ATS picks during the NBA Finals. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.
- Bucks vs. Suns spread: Suns -4
- Bucks vs. Suns over-under: 218 points
- Bucks vs. Suns money line: Suns -165, Bucks +145
- MIL: The Bucks are 3-6 against the spread in the last nine road games
- PHX: The Suns are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight home games
Why the Bucks can cover
In the regular season, the Bucks were an offense-first team, scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions and shooting 48.7 percent from the floor with 38.9 percent shooting from 3-point range. In the playoffs, Milwaukee's shooting accuracy has wavered, but its Game 4 performance was a reminder of its versatility. The Bucks took 19 more shots than the Suns, a whopping figure, by virtue of strong ball security and offensive rebounding. Milwaukee was an above-average team in turnover rate (13.4 percent) and offensive rebound rate (26.9 percent) during the regular season, but the Bucks have been even better in the playoffs.
However, the Bucks are truly leaving their mark defensively, leading the 2021 NBA Playoffs in defensive rating while allowing just 1.06 points per possession. The Suns are a highly potent shooting team, but Milwaukee is limiting Phoenix to just one shot attempt on many possessions. That has helped the Bucks function even with substandard shooting, and they are the bigger, more physical team in the series, particularly with Phoenix left short-handed by the absence of Dario Saric (knee) as a backup center option.
Why the Suns can cover
Chris Paul was an x-factor in Games 1 and 2 for Phoenix. The 36-year-old, who is looking for the first title in his illustrious career, combined for 55 points, 17 assists and eight rebounds in those matchups. He struggled in Milwaukee, however, scoring just 29 combined points in Games 3 and 4. Game 4, in particular, was a disappointment as he scored just 10 points on 5-of-13 shooting while turning the ball over five times.
The extra day of rest should help Paul get back on his game. And Phoenix crushed the books all season when playing at home. The Suns have a sparkling 30-16 record against the spread in Phoenix this season and they are 28-13 ATS as home favorites.
How to make Bucks vs. Suns picks
Hartstein is leaning under on the point total for Game 5 of the 2021 NBA Finals. He also has isolated a critical x-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. He's sharing those NBA Finals 2021 picks only at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Suns Game 5? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.