Celtics vs. Heat odds, line: NBA picks, best predictions from proven model on 69-52 roll

Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics will look to build off Monday's win over the Heat, as they travel to Miami for a rematch against Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat. The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown and Marcus Morris, while Al Horford is listed as probable with knee soreness. Miami is a bit short handed too, as Derrick Jones Jr. has already been declared out, and both Josh Richardson (heel) and Justise Winslow (thigh) are listed as questionable. Tipoff for this one is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Arena. Sportsbooks list this Eastern Conference battle as a pick'em, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Celtics vs. Heat picks, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 25 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 277-216 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 25 on a strong 69-52 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Celtics vs. Heat. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it's also generated a strong against the spread pick that cashes in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model is well aware of what a mismatch this is on paper. Boston boasts the sixth-ranked defense, and the Celtics rank ahead of the Heat in offensive efficiency, assist-to-turnover ratio, and point differential. Everything on paper points towards the Celtics being the superior team, including their 2-1 record in the season series. 

With Miami looking likely to be without some of their best perimeter defenders in Richardson and Winslow, they are even less equipped to deal with scorers like Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, and Gordon Hayward. Tatum has given Miami problems in past matchups, averaging 19 points on 49 percent shooting from the floor and a scorching hot 64 percent mark from three. He's actually shot better and seen his scoring average rise when playing on the road, so don't expect him to be intimidated playing in the American Airlines Arena tonight.

But just because the Celtics have had success against Miami this season doesn't mean Boston will win and cover the Celtics vs. Heat spread on Wednesday. 

The model is also well aware that Boston has struggled mightily on the road. In fact, only six teams have a worse cover rate than Boston's 46.1 percent mark on the year. It is quite clear that Vegas has overvalued this hyped-up Celtics squad, also evidenced by their 1-5 record against-the-spread over the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, Miami has a 4-2-1 against the spread record during that time. The Heat also have the NBA's second-best cover rate as an underdog at 68.4 percent.

Who wins Celtics vs. Heat? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

Our Latest Stories