Celtics vs. Heat odds, line: NBA picks, top predictions from proven computer model on 17-7 roll

The Brad Stevens-led Boston Celtics seem to have worked out their early season struggles, as they are winners of their last four heading into Thursday's game against the Miami Heat. Tipoff from American Airlines Arena in sunny South Florida is at 7 p.m. ET. Sportsbooks list the Celtics as 2.5 road favorites, up from an open of one. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 212 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds, up 2.5 from the opener. Each team has virtually an identical against the spread record, so before you make any Celtics vs. Heat picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks this season. It entered Week 13 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 146-103 record on all top-rated picks, returning nearly $3,000 to anybody following them. And it was particularly red hot on its A-rated NBA picks in Week 12, going a blistering 17-7. Anybody following it is way, way up.

Now it has locked in on Celtics vs. Heat (stream live on fuboTV). We can tell you it's leaning Under, but it has also locked in a confident against-the-spread pick that hits in over half of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine. 

The model is well aware that Boston has been on a roll lately, winning seven of its past nine games. It also knows that the Heat have failed to cover the spread in four of their past five. While Miami struggles to fit the pieces together, Boston has been clicking on all cylinders as of late, with point guard Kyrie Irving returning to full health and Gordon Hayward finding his groove off the bench.

Hayward has averaged 19 points, five rebounds, and five assists over his last three games, highlighted by a season-high 35 points last Wednesday. He will look to provide a similar spark from the second unit on Thursday as the Celtics look for their fifth straight victory. Boston has a point differential of plus-7.1 this season, compared to just plus-0.6 for Miami. And the Celtics have covered four straight.

But just because Irving and the Celtics have been hot doesn't mean they can cover one of the tightest NBA spreads of the night against the Heat. 

The model is also aware that the Celtics are playing their third game in four nights. Boston has covered the spread just once in its last six games played on zero days rest. They also have failed to cover in four of their last five meetings with Miami.

Miami is seventh in defensive efficiency, fifth in points allowed per game, and ninth in rebound rate. They're getting healthy at the right time too, with Dion Waiters, Dwyane Wade, and James Johnson all back in the rotation after missing extended time to start the season. 

So who wins Celtics vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in over half of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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