Celtics vs. Pacers odds, line, spread: NBA picks, top predictions from proven model on 69-52 run

Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers will be out for revenge Friday as they host Boston for a rematch against Kyrie Irving and a Celtics squad that handed them an L just a week ago. The Pacers may be without Darren Collison (groin) and Wesley Matthews (hamstring). Boston is a bit short-handed too. Jaylen Brown (back) has been ruled out and Marcus Morris (ankle) is listed as questionable. Tipoff for this one is set for 8 p.m. ET from Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Sportsbooks list Boston as a one-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213 in the latest Celtics vs. Pacers odds. Before you make any Celtics vs. Pacers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 25 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 277-216 record on all top-rated picks, returning over $4,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 25 on a strong 69-52 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Celtics vs. Pacers. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it's also generated an extremely strong against the spread pick that hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You can only see it at SportsLine.

The model is well aware that Boston stands out as the better team on paper. The Celtics rank well ahead of Indiana in offensive efficiency and assist-to-turnover ratio, while also boasting a top-five point differential. Indiana has contributed to Boston's positive point differential, as the Celtics are 2-1 against the Pacers this year and are plus-28 in total points in their three meetings.

While it hurts Boston to be without two key pieces of their rotation, their absence has allowed Gordon Hayward to emerge once again off the bench. Hayward has shown flashes of his former self over the past week, averaging 18 points on 55 percent shooting from the floor and 46 percent shooting from beyond the arc. He put up 25 points and had a plus-minus of +16 in Boston's most recent game, and another big performance off the bench could be enough for Boston to cap off a strong season series against the Pacers.

But just because Boston is hitting its stride late in the season doesn't mean it'll cover the Celtics vs. Pacers spread on Friday.

The model is also well aware of how important home court advantage has been for the Pacers this season. Indiana has already beaten Boston at Bankers Life Fieldhouse once, and its 29-10 record at home is the sixth-best in the NBA. The Pacers have a 59 percent cover rate at home, compared to Boston's 43.2 percent on the road. That cover rate climbs all the way to 71.2 percent as a home underdog, as the Pacers are on Friday night. 

Turner, specifically, has been better at home, averaging more points, rebounds, blocks, and steals, while also shooting a scorching 43 percent from 3-point range. He has been on fire lately, averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds, and nearly three blocks over the past two weeks. The Pacers are 17-6 when Turner scores more than 15 points.

So who wins Pacers vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pacers vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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