Celtics vs. Warriors odds, spread, line: 2019 NBA picks, Nov. 15 predictions from proven simulation on 6-2 run
The SportsLine Projection Model simulated Celtics vs. Warriors on Friday 10,000 times.
D'Angelo Russell and the Golden State Warriors host Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on Friday, and tipoff from the Chase Center is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics are riding a nine-game win streak and haven't lost since their season-opener. They boast the NBA's best record, while the Warriors are on the opposite end of the standings at 2-10. Sportsbooks list the Celtics as 7.5-point road favorites, off a half-point from where the line opened, while the over-under for total points is 222.5 in the latest Celtics vs Warriors odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Celtics picks and NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against the spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.
Now, it has locked in on Celtics vs. Warriors. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also has a strong against the spread pick, saying one side cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware that home court advantage hasn't meant much for Golden State this season. They're just 1-5 against the spread at the Chase Center, as opposed to 3-3 on the road. Meanwhile, Boston has the NBA's third-best cover rate on the road. Boston also received positive injury news on Friday, as Daniel Theis (finger) and Robert Williams (ankle) were declared probable after missing their last game.
Those two will be important in exploiting Golden State's biggest weakness, defending the rim. The Warriors have allowed the most points in the league from within five feet of the rim and rank 27th in rebounding rate. Adding those two to a roster that was already thriving might make the Celtics too much for Golden State to handle on Friday.
Just because Boston has looked unstoppable lately doesn't mean it will cover the Celtics vs. Warriors spread on the road, however.
The model is also well aware that Sportsbooks regularly overvalued the Celtics last year. Boston covered the spread in just 48.3 percent of their games, and that number dropped to just 40 percent when playing as a road favorite. They've been better to start this season, but they've also played one of the softest schedules in the NBA. Based on what we've seen in the past, it's possible that Sportsbooks are again overvaluing the Celtics, which would help explain why the spread has moved towards Golden State since it opened.
With the Warriors missing several key pieces, Russell has picked up the slack over the past few games. Since returning from his own injury, Russell is averaging 34 points, seven assists, and four rebounds, while shooting 51 percent from the field and 42 percent from 3-point territory. Two of those four games came against the Jazz and Lakers, who rank first and second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. If those defenses can't figure D-Lo out, Boston's 13th-ranked defense isn't likely to.
So who wins Warriors vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Warriors vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
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