The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis to take on the Indiana Pacers on Friday night. The Cavs are 4.5-point favorites, up one from an open of 3.5. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220, unchanged from the open.
Before you lock in your picks for this Eastern Conference showdown, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
It's on a remarkable 33-18 run in top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks. Anyone who has followed its advice is cashing big right now.
Now the model has simulated Cavs-Pacers 10,000 times and come up with some surprising results.
One we'll give away: It is calling for under 220 to hit 52 percent of the time. The public is on the under 49 percent of the time, so tread lightly with the total.
And the model has a strong, top-rated pick for one side of the spread.
It knows this is a revenge game for the Cavaliers, who lost to the Pacers in Cleveland on Nov. 1. At the time, it was the Cavs' fourth straight loss and LeBron James was the sole Cavalier to score more than 20 points.
The Cavs shot just 22 percent on 3-pointers compared to 61 percent for Indiana. The Pacers also forced 16 turnovers.
But just because the Pacers won the first matchup outright doesn't mean history repeats itself Friday.
The Cavaliers are riding a 13-game winning streak, and they've hit 115 points almost half the time during their run.
And it hasn't been all James. In the past five games, three Cavaliers have led the team in scoring (James, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Love).
The Pacers, meanwhile, have lost three of their past six outright and failed to hit 100 points three times over the span.
Will the red-hot Cavs cover on the road in a revenge game? Or will Indiana make it two in a row against LeBron James and Co.? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Cavaliers-Pacers spread you need to be all over, all from the model that's 33-18 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
