Clippers vs. Heat odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 24 predictions from computer model on 32-16 run
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Friday's Clippers vs. Heat matchup 10,000 times.
Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat (31-13) will host Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers (31-14) on Friday. Both teams are dealing with their fair share of injuries and are playing the fourth game in six nights, so fatigue could be a factor. For Miami, Butler (knee), Goran Dragic (calf), and Kendrick Nunn (Achilles) are all listed as questionable, while Justise Winslow (back) remains out. The Clippers are expected to be without both Paul George (hamstring) and Patrick Beverley (groin).
Tip-off for this one is set for 8:00 p.m ET from the AmericanAirlines Arena. Sportsbooks list the Clippers as three-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 221.5 in the latest Clippers vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Clippers picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 13 on a blistering 32-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Clippers vs. Heat spread: Clippers -3
- Clippers vs. Heat over-under: 221.5 points
- Clippers vs. Heat money line: Los Angeles -133, Miami +110
- LAC: The Clippers are just 1-3 ATS when playing on the road in 2020.
- MIA: The Heat have the NBA's only home ATS cover rate (71.6 percent) that is above 61 percent.
Why the Clippers can cover
The model is well aware that Butler has been one of the most important players for any single team this season, providing the Heat with a 95th percentile boost when on the court. Per cleaningtheglass.com, the Heat have been 11.6 points per 100 possessions better with Butler on the court, so his potential absence is certainly noteworthy.
Even if Butler suits up, the Clippers have just been the better team this season. The two teams have an identical offensive efficiency, but the Clippers rank ahead of Miami in defensive efficiency. L.A. has a +6.1 average point differential on the year, compared to Miami's +3.7 mark.
Just because Los Angeles has the edge on paper, doesn't mean it will cover the Clippers vs. Heat spread, however.
Why the Heat can cover
The model is also well aware that Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season. Their only loss in 21 home games was a three-point defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Lakers, and they weren't fully healthy for that one. Their 20-1 record and 15-5-1 ATS record at home are both easily the best marks in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Clippers have just a 45.5 percent cover rate ATS when playing as the road team. L.A.'s point differential drops from +10.2 at home all the way to +2.0 when playing on the road. L.A.'s defense has been significantly worse on the road, and that isn't likely to change with two of their best defenders set to miss Friday's game. Leonard may be able to keep Butler in check if he plays, but that leaves plenty of other Miami players who are capable of exploiting what is left of L.A.'s defense.
How to make Clippers vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Leonard to score j26.3 points, which is below his season average, and has Bam Adebayo finishing well below his average scoring output for Miami. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations.
So who wins Clippers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread cashes nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Clippers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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