The Miami Heat (6-11) host the Los Angeles Clippers (13-5) on Thursday evening as both teams deal with several notable absences. Kawhi Leonard (COVID protocols), Paul George (protocols) and Patrick Beverley (knee) are out for the Clippers, leaving the team short-handed on the road. Miami has a lengthy list of concerns as well with Goran Dragic (groin) and Jimmy Butler (protocols) ruled out and Tyler Herro (neck) among the players listed as questionable.
Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami. The latest Clippers vs. Heat odds list Miami as a five-point favorite, down half a point from the opening line. The over-under is set at 213, down 2.5 points from the opener. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Clippers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 69-40 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Clippers vs. Heat spread: Heat -5
- Clippers vs. Heat over-under: 213 points
- Clippers vs. Heat money line: Heat -185; Clippers +165
- LAC: The Clippers are 5-3 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 3-6-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Clippers can cover
Los Angeles isn't at full strength but, even without its big pieces offensively, the Clippers can rely on a strong baseline. Tyronn Lue is an offensive wizard as a head coach, and L.A. ranks in the top two of the NBA in offensive rating (116.0) and true shooting percentage (60.3 percent) to this point. The Clippers also lead the NBA in 3-point shooting (41.8 percent) and they are above-average in taking care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 14.1 percent of offensive possessions.
Defensively, the Clippers are strong in protecting the glass, ranking sixth in defensive rebound rate (75.7 percent) and No. 1 in the NBA in second-chance points allowed (9.7 per game). L.A. also rates in the top eight in points allowed off turnovers (15.4 per game) and points allowed in the paint (45.0 per game).
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is led by Bam Adebayo, who projects to be the best player available for either team in this matchup. The All-Star big man is averaging 20.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and an impressive 5.5 assists per game, all while providing stellar defense. As a team, Miami ranks second in the league in assist rate (67.3 percent) and sixth in true shooting percentage (58.2 percent).
The Heat are also solid in a few defensive categories, including a top-10 mark in turnover creation rate at 15.0 percent. Miami is stellar at keeping opponents off the free throw line, and L.A. is a below-average offensive rebounding team, which could pave the way for the Heat to close possessions effectively.
How to make Clippers vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is projecting the teams to combine for 213 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Clippers? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Clippers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.