Chris Paul and the Oklahoma City Thunder (37-23) will host Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers (41-19) on Tuesday. Neither team has any injuries to report, as they enter this Western Conference showdown at full health. For the Clippers, that is an uncommon feat. This will mark just the 10th game that L.A. has played at full health this season, and they are a perfect 9-0 in the previous games they had a full lineup.
Tip-off for this one is set for 8 p.m ET from the Chesapeake Energy Arena. Sportsbooks list Los Angeles as a 3.5-point road favorite, while the over-under for total points is 226.5 in the latest Clippers vs. Thunder odds. Before making any Thunder vs. Clippers picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 20 a blistering 49-31 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Clippers vs. Thunder spread: Clippers -3.5
- Clippers vs. Thunder over-under: 226.5 points
- Clippers vs. Thunder money line: Los Angeles -162, Oklahoma City +139
- LAC: The Clippers are undefeated (9-0) when playing at full health and have won four-straight since Paul George and Patrick Beverley returned to the lineup.
- OKC: The Thunder have a 73 percent ATS cover rate when playing as underdogs, the third-best mark in the NBA.
Why the Clippers can cover
The model is well aware of what a mismatch this is on paper. Los Angeles ranks ahead of Oklahoma City in offensive and defensive efficiency, rebounding rate and point differential. They haven't lost a game while playing at full health, which includes a 29-point win over the Nuggets and a 27-point win over the Grizzlies since Paul George returned to the lineup a week ago.
Not only are the Clippers the far superior team by those metrics, their combination of Leonard and George give the Thunder all kinds of matchup problems. OKC prefers to play small, often using three guards on the court at once. Oklahoma City's wing defenders aren't necessarily bad, but they don't have the size or range to effectively match up with wings of Leonard and George's caliber.
Why the Thunder can cover
Even so, Los Angeles isn't a lock to cover the Clippers vs. Thunder spread. The model has also considered that the Thunder have thrived as underdogs this season. OKC has covered 73 percent of spreads when playing as underdogs, and that rate jumps to 80 percent when the spread was +1.5 to +4.5, as it is in this matchup. In general, sportsbooks have clearly undervalued OKC this season, as evidenced by their 63 percent ATS cover rate in all games -- the second-best mark in the NBA.
The Thunder already have covered the spread twice against the Clippers, which includes a six-point win the last time L.A. visited Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Clippers have struggled when playing on the road this season, posting just a 48.3 percent ATS cover rate.
How to make Clippers vs. Thunder picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting George, Paul, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander all to finish below their scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations.
So who wins Clippers vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread cashes over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Clippers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.