One of the worst betting mistakes you can make in a playoff series is going down with the ship. It's understandable. If you firmly believed that one team was going to win a series, it's easy to buy into the idea of small sample sizes working against that original choice. But more often than not, when a team goes up 3-1 against an opponent, it's because they are the better team.
That, right now, is the case between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Every Boston pick was justifiable to this point. The Celtics were the better team all season. But the Heat are the better team right now, and they're headed to the NBA Finals in today's best bets.
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics: Heat +3.5
If you're betting on the Celtics, you're betting on a blowout. Boston won Game 3 by double digits, but the other three games in this series have been close Miami victories won in crunch time. Under normal circumstances, that wouldn't be sustainable, but if this postseason is any indication, it is now. Boston scored only 98 points per 100 clutch possessions against Toronto, a figure that has dropped to 87.9 against Miami. They haven't been able to generate offense, and that doesn't appear likely to change.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics: Under 213
This is a late-stage playoff game between two great defenses. It took 37 points from a reserve, Tyler Herro, to get Game 4 over this total. Expect adjustments from the Celtics in this one, and a game that looks a bit closer to their second-round series against the Raptors: defense first.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics: Goran Dragic under 18.5 points
Goran Dragic got to 22 points in Game 4, but needed 21 shots to do it. In Game 3, he took only 11 shots. The latter is a more reasonable expectation than the former with Marcus Smart draped all over him. This isn't going to be a heavy Dragic series so long as Smart has that assignment.