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The Atalanta Hawks face the Miami Heat in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on Friday evening. Miami upended Atlanta in Game 2, riding an explosive Jimmy Butler performance to victory. The Heat won both games at home, and the Hawks host Game 3 in Atlanta needing a victory. If the Hawks can't put together a win at home, their bid to return to the Eastern Conference finals looks all but lost.

Tip-off from State Farm Arena is at 7 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 1.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 222 in the latest Heat vs. Hawks odds. Before making any Hawks vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA playoff 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Hawks spread: Heat -1.5
  • Heat vs. Hawks over-under: 222 points
  • Heat vs. Hawks money line: Heat -125, Hawks +105
  • MIA: The Heat are 8-1 against the spread in the last nine games
  • ATL: The Hawks are 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 games
Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has dominated the first two games, out-scoring Atlanta by 34 points. The Heat have silenced the Hawks with an elite defensive performance, holding the league's No. 2 offense to just 1.00 points per possession. Miami is securing 76 percent of available defensive rebounds, an elite figure, and the Heat are forcing a turnover on 18.9 percent of defensive possessions. Atlanta finished No. 1 in the NBA in ball security on offense this season, but Miami has been able to create chaos on a regular basis. That includes 10.5 steals per game and the reality that the Hawks have exactly as many assists as turnovers through two games in the series. 

On offense, Miami is also playing quite well, headlined by a 45-point outburst from Butler in Game 2 on Tuesday. The Heat are assisting on 69.1 percent of field goals, a mark that would have led the NBA in the regular season, and Miami is shooting 43.2 percent from 3-point range against Atlanta. The Hawks finished the regular season in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive efficiency, and Atlanta continues to operate without its defensive centerpiece given the injury to Capela.

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks struggled in Miami, but Atlanta has been a different team at home in recent days. Atlanta is 20-3 in the last 23 home games and, from Jan. 17 to the end of the regular season, the Hawks out-scored opponents by 8.7 points per 100 possessions in home games. Over the course of those 23 games, including a play-In win over Charlotte, Atlanta has scored 226 more points than its opponents at State Farm Arena. With the change in venue, the Hawks will perhaps be more comfortable on offense, and Atlanta finished No. 2 in the NBA in regular season offensive efficiency. 

Trae Young is the centerpiece of Atlanta's attack, averaging 28.4 points and 9.7 assists per game in 2021-22, and Young became the first player in nearly five decades to lead the NBA in total points and total assists in the same season. The Hawks are also excellent at the free throw line, making 81.2 percent of attempts in the regular season and 82.9 percent of attempts in the series. On defense, Atlanta has struggled at times, but they've been able to stop Miami from generating second-chance opportunities with a stellar defensive rebound rate of 81.0 percent.

How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 227 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.