Heat vs. Hornets odds, line: NBA picks, predictions from model on 52-37 roll

Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets play host to Josh Richardson and the Miami Heat on Wednesday, with tipoff from Spectrum Center set for 7 p.m. ET. This is a pivotal game for both teams, as they enter the action tied for eighth in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won three of its past four, a stretch that includes a win over the Warriors. Charlotte, on the other hand, has sputtered lately, winning just one of its past five games. The Hornets are 3.5-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 215.5 in the latest Heat vs Hornets odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Hornets picks and NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 21 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 234-178 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 21 on a strong 52-37 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has locked in on Heat vs. Hornets. We can tell you it's leaning under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that strong selection at SportsLine

The model is well aware of how important home-court advantage is in this matchup. While the Hornets have been one of the NBA's worst road teams, they have been tough to beat at home. Their 20-13 home record is one of the best marks in the East, and one of those wins was a double-digit victory over the Heat.

In addition, Hornets have already beaten Miami twice this season. Kemba Walker was terrific in those games, averaging 29 points and 7.5 assists, while shooting a scorching 48 percent on 3-pointers. Charlotte's All-Star point guard is averaging 27 points and seven assists in his past five games.

But just because Charlotte benefits from home court advantage doesn't mean it will cover the Hornets vs. Heat spread.

The model is also well aware that Miami has been one of Vegas' most underappreciated teams this season, especially on the road. The Heat have a top-10 cover rate (52.4 percent), which is all the way up to a league-best 64.5 percent on the road. The Heat are the only team in the NBA to have a better outright record on the road than at home.

Miami has been receiving excellent contributions from a variety of players lately, as Dwyane Wade, Justise Winslow and Bam Adebayo are averaging above their season marks in points, rebounds and assists since the All-Star break. It has been a team effort, which has led to Miami covering the spread in each of its past three road games -- a stretch that includes opponents like the Rockets and Sixers. 

So who wins Heat vs. Hornets? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Hornets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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