Talented young stars meet in the first tip on the NBA Christmas Day 2020 schedule when Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat host Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans at AmericanAirlines Arena. Miami won the Eastern Conference last year, but dropped its opener against Orlando this season. New Orleans finished 13th in the Western Conference in 2019-20, but has much higher hopes this season. The Pelicans showed plenty of promise in a 113-99 season-opening victory against the Raptors.
Tip-off is set for noon ET on Friday. The latest Heat vs. Pelicans odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Miami as a 3.5-point favorite, down from -5.5. The over-under for total points expected is down to 223.5 after opening at 229. Before making any Pelicans vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Last year, it went a stunning 61-33 on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Pelicans. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Pelicans vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Pelicans spread: Heat -3.5
- Heat vs. Pelicans over-under: 223.5
- Heat vs. Pelicans money line: Heat -160; Pelicans +140
- MIA: Went 52-40 against the spread last season
- NO: Went 35-35 against the spread last season
Why the Heat can cover
Miami didn't have the opener it was hoping for, but the Heat still bring back the core of a roster that made a deep run last season. Miami needed no more than five games to advance in its first two postseason series and then knocked off the Celtics 4-2 before falling 2-4 against the Lakers in the NBA Finals. Adebayo is one of the NBA's best overall big men, and he scored 25 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in the opener.
Veteran Jimmy Butler averaged just short of 20 points per game last season and is a key cog on the wing. Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are all great options from 3-point range.
Oddsmakers regularly underestimated Miami last season as it rolled to the third-best mark (52-40) against the spread during the 2019-20 campaign.
Why the Pelicans can cover
Even so, Miami isn't a lock to cover the Heat vs. Pelicans spread during Friday's matchup. New Orleans brought in coach Stan Van Gundy to help the organization get back to the postseason, and the early results have been promising.
The Pelicans got 24 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds from Brandon Ingram as they knocked off the Raptors in their opener, easily staying within the spread as 3.5-point underdogs in that matchup. Williamson, who missed significant time last season with a knee injury, saw 30 minutes in the opener and he scored 15 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.
There's a lot to like about the Pelicans starting five, which includes Ingram, Williamson, Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball. Van Gundy is expected to go with a tighter rotation this season, and that was utilized in the opener as only JJ Redick and Josh Hart saw major minutes off the bench. Reddick, however, was very effective -- hitting 6 of 11 3-point attempts on his way to 23 points.
How to make Heat vs. Pelicans picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with five different players projected to score 15 or more points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Pelicans vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Heat vs. Pelicans spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.
