Last night was an excellent reminder of how painful gambling can be. For those of you who weren't with us yesterday, our Hot Ticket was taking the over 25.5 points and rebounds for Phoenix's Deandre Ayton. I explained in the newsletter how Ayton hadn't finished with fewer than 30 combined points and rebounds in a game against Denver this season and averaged 33.3 per game.
Fast forward to the end of the third quarter when Ayton had 15 points and 10 rebounds, meaning he was only a point or rebound away from winning our bet. But there was a slight problem! The score at the end of the third quarter was 86-67 Suns. The quarter began with Ayton on the bench, and Phoenix extended the lead to 96-70 in the first two minutes of the quarter.
There was no need for Ayton to return to the game, and we were forced to sit there and watch our sure thing die an undeserved death. It was the worst beat I've had in a while, and in a sick way, I enjoyed it. I mean, if you're going to lose a bet, it's better to lose it in a way that gives you a story to tell about how wronged you were.
- Todd Gurley visited the Ravens today.
- The Chiefs revamped offensive line took a hit today.
- The Celtics tried to trade Kemba Walker to San Antonio.
- I demand more content about how great Justin Fields is.
Now let us look another bad beat in the eye and say "not today."
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Clippers at Jazz, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Rudy Gobert Under 27.5 Points & Rebounds (-125): We are not letting what happened to us last night with Deandre Ayton scare us away from more props tonight! Of course, we're changing things up a bit here by going with an under instead of an over, so it's not exactly the same. The reason I like this prop is that Gobert hasn't been dominant against the Clippers this season. If you look at his averages in four games -- including Game 1 -- he's averaging 13.25 points and 14 rebounds, which adds up to 27.25 per game. Those averages don't show that there was one game against the Clippers on Feb. 17 when Gobert finished with 23 points and 20 rebounds. Neither Paul George nor Kawhi Leonard played for the Clippers that night.
If we remove that game from the equation, Gobert has averaged 10 points and 12 rebounds per game in the other three. That puts us well below the 27.5 threshold here, and that's also the total Gobert finished with in Game 1!
Key Trend: Gobert has finished with more than 27.5 points and rebounds only once in four games against the Clippers, and neither Paul George or Kawhi Leonard played in that game.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: While SportsLine's experts are on both sides of the spread in tonight's game, the Advanced Computer Model has a strong lean on the total.
Nets at Bucks, 7:30 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Bryn Forbes Over 10.5 points (-110) -- We know that I worship at the altar of role players performing better at home than on the road in the playoffs, and tonight that brings me to Milwaukee backup guard Bryn Forbes. On the season, Forbes averaged 10 points per game coming off the bench for the Bucks but was better at home all season long. In 35 home games, he averaged 10.7 points per game while shooting 49.6% from the floor and 48.3% from three. He fell to 9.3 points per game on the road and shot 44.9% overall and 41.8% from three.
Through the first two games of this series, Forbes averages 7.5 points per game and is only 3-for-9 from three. Tonight, returning home, I'm expecting Forbes to have his best performance of the series to this point, and that will include at least 11 points more often than not.
Key Trend: Forbes shoots 49.6% at home compared to 44.9% on the road.
Yankees at Twins, 8:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Twins (+120) -- While you'll see just below this section that there's a portion of the Yankees lineup I like for DFS tonight, that doesn't mean I think you should be betting on the Yankees to win. No, it's quite the opposite. The Twins have failed to live up to expectations this season, but they're being undervalued in this spot. The Yankees will be sending Michael King to the mound tonight, and let's just say there's a significant drop-off between King and last night's starter Gerrit Cole.
King does not miss many bats and has walked too many hitters through 27.1 innings this season. While the Twins are disappointing, it's been due to pitching problems, as the team's offense has been just fine. Minnesota ranks in a tie for seventh in wOBA, eighth in wRC+ and is fourth in overall HR%. The price underestimates what the Twins offense is capable of in this matchup.
Key Trend: The Yankees are only 3-7 in their last 10 games as a favorite.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Both SportsLine expert John Bollman and the Advanced Computer Model are in agreement on a money line play in tonight's White Sox-Blue Jays game, with the model giving a strong A-grade to the play.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Top Three Starters
- Max Scherzer, Nationals
- Trevor Rogers, Marlins
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays
- Frankie Montas, Athletics
Today's Hitter Stack
- DJ LeMahieu, Yankees
- Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Kyle Schwarber, Nationals
Full lineup advice
⚽ Euro 2020 Futures
Euro 2020 begins on Friday, which is tomorrow, which is a day that is in the year 2021, but it's still Euro 2020 because that's what was printed on all the t-shirts before COVID hit! Anyway, I thought I'd share my favorite futures bets for the tournament with you here with the tournament starting tomorrow.
- France to win (+450)
- Belgium to win (+600)
- Denmark to reach quarterfinals (+125)