It's time to fade the Chicago Bulls again, plus other best bets for Monday night

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Dearest reader, were you worried that we might go a day without an NFL quarterback being traded to a new team? Well, worry no more, friend! Another QB has been traded! This time, Matt Ryan was sent to the Indianapolis Colts by the Atlanta Falcons for a third-round pick.

So, for those of you keeping score, the Colts traded Carson Wentz to the Commanders for a 2022 second-round pick and two third-round picks -- one of which could become a second -- and then turned around and sent a third to Atlanta for Ryan. Now, before you go out there and say what a wonderful job the Colts did with these trades, remember that they sent a first and a third to Philadelphia for Wentz last season.

Anyway, it's a new chapter for Matt Ryan as he'll become the fifth different starting QB in Indianapolis in the last five seasons. As for the Falcons, who knows what they will do next? There are still some veteran QB options that they could trade for -- maybe they're already trying? -- or we could see them use their first-round pick on a QB in the draft. Or, who knows? Maybe they'll go full-on tank mode to get the first pick in next year's draft.

So many options to choose from! None of them are very enticing to a Falcons fan right now!

All right, let's find some games to bet on.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏀 Raptors at Bulls, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

Key Trend: The Raptors are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog.
The Pick: Raptors +4 (-110)

After spending the last few weeks focusing nearly all of my energy on college basketball, it's time to dust off the old NBA principles -- one of which is fading the Chicago Bulls when they've faced good teams. It's been quite profitable as of late.

The Bulls had the best record in the Eastern Conference at the All-Star break. Now they've fallen to fifth after losing eight of 11. Seven of those losses have come against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today (the other was Sacramento). This poor run of form has put the Bulls in a spot where they've gone from possibly earning homecourt advantage to trying to avoid the play-in games, which is where Toronto sits at 1.5 games behind Chicago.

The Raptors have certainly been the better of these two since the break and will cause the Bulls plenty of problems tonight. Chicago's downfall has been on the defensive end, and even if things have improved slightly with Alex Caruso's return, it hasn't been enough. The good news for Chicago is they get Patrick Williams back for the first time since October, but he's not likely to play many minutes and will be rusty even if he does.

So while the Bulls might avoid the loss and clear some space between themselves and the play-in games, Toronto will make it difficult.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has a heavy lean toward one side of the spread too.

💰 More NBA picks

Celtics at Thunder, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Over 216 (-110) -- The Celtics have the best defensive rating in the NBA, and that's awesome because it's keeping this total a lot lower than it should be. Sure, the Thunder will struggle to score points against this Boston defense as everybody does, but the Thunder have been horrific defensively. Oklahoma City ranks 16th in defensive rating on the season, but the way they played in November and December doesn't mean anything now that the entire team is injured.

Since the All-Star break, the Thunder have a defensive rating of 120.4. The only team that's performed worse is Portland at a remarkable 124.7. Opponents are scoring at will against Oklahoma City these days, and it won't be any different for the Celtics. The Thunder might not even have to break 100 points on their own to get us past this total tonight.

Key Trend: The over is 8-1 in OKC's last nine at home

Wizards at Rockets, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Rockets +5 (-110) -- While we're on the subject of teams playing terrible defense, let me tell you about the Washington Wizards. I mentioned that Oklahoma City's defensive rating ranks 29th in the NBA since the break, and the Wizards are 28th at 120.1. So, no, there's no way in the world the Wizards should be favored by five points on the road against anybody, even the Houston Rockets.

This isn't to say that the Rockets are good or even playing well lately. They aren't. They're 2-11 since the break, but this line is off by about three points too many in my estimation, and I can't pass up this opportunity. You can even consider sprinkling the Houston money line if you're feeling frisky, but the spread is the better value.

Key Trend: The Wizards are only 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 as a road favorite

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: We know what the Sweet 16 looks like, but do we know how it'll play out? SportsLine's Projection Model has a good idea based on its simulations.

🏀 New NCAA Tournament future bet

The Pick: Houston to win the South Region (+240) -- Did you know that according to predictive metrics at places like KenPom, Houston is considered to be better than Arizona? It's true. KenPom currently has the Cougars as the second-best team in the country, behind only Gonzaga. Arizona is No. 3. Another site, called BartTorvik.com, has Houston as the No. 2 team in the country and Arizona at No. 8.

Both sites would have the Cougars favored, so don't be surprised if you see the line in that Sweet 16 game move from Arizona -2 to Houston -1 during the week, but we'll tackle that here on Thursday. For now, take Houston to win the regional. It's an excellent team that was underseeded by the committee because of its strength of schedule but has picked up big wins over a Memphis team that gave Gonzaga all it could ask for and an Illinois team that won a share of the Big Ten regular-season title.

It's long, athletic, versatile and defends like hell. It's precisely the kind of team that can make noise in March like it did last season when it reached the Final Four.