The Dallas Mavericks face a significant challenge in their home building on Monday evening. Dallas enters on a four-game winning streak and with a 27-21 overall record, though they host an even hotter opponent in the Utah Jazz. Utah boasts the NBA's best record at 38-11, and the Jazz have won nine consecutive games. Kristaps Porzingis (wrist) and Josh Richardson (calf) are listed as questionable for the Mavericks, with J.J. Redick (heel) and Willie Cauley-Stein (protocols) set to miss Monday's game.
Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET in Dallas. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Jazz as five-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 223 in the latest Jazz vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Jazz picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it has returned more than $8,800 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up more than $800 on its top-rated picks this season, and dating back to last year, it entered Week 15 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 93-59 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Jazz vs. Mavericks spread: Jazz -5
- Jazz vs. Mavericks over-under: 223 points
- Jazz vs. Mavericks money line: Utah -200, Dallas +175
- UTAH: The Jazz are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
- DAL: The Mavericks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Jazz can cover
Utah is unquestionably elite on both ends of the floor, leading to the best record and best point differential in the NBA. The Jazz are scoring more than 1.17 points per possession for the season, with top-two rankings in 3-pointers (17.0 per game), 3-point accuracy (39.8 percent) and true shooting percentage (59.9 percent). Utah is also stout on the offensive glass, grabbing 28.9 percent of its own misses, and the Jazz convert at a top-10 level when they get to the free throw line, making 78.9 percent of their attempts.
On the defensive end, the Jazz are No. 3 in the league, holding opponents to just 1.07 points per possession, and they lead the NBA in shooting efficiency allowed. Utah leads the NBA in giving up only 10.4 3-pointers per game to the opposition, with opponents making only 50.0 percent of their two-point attempts and 34.0 percent of their 3-point attempts. The Jazz also have top-five marks in assists allowed (22.3 per game), free throw rate allowed and blocked shots (5.5 per game), and the Mavericks rarely create second-chance opportunities, ranking 25th in offensive rebound rate.
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas is led by one of the top offensive creators in the NBA in Luka Doncic. Doncic is averaging 28.6 points, 8.8 assists and 8.1 rebounds per game this season, keying a strong offense. The Mavericks are scoring almost 1.14 points per possession, and they rank third in the NBA in two-point shooting, making 55.5 percent of their shots inside the arc. Dallas is also elite at taking care of the ball, committing only 12.2 turnovers per game, and Utah is the worst team in the NBA at creating turnovers, forcing a giveaway on only 11.5 percent of defensive possessions.
On the defensive side, the Mavericks are No. 8 in the league in points allowed per game (108.8) and they rank in the top 10 in both field goal percentage allowed (45.6 percent) and two-point shooting allowed (52.1 percent). Utah is very good offensively but, if the Jazz have a weakness, it comes in ball security, with Utah committing a turnover on 14.1 percent of offensive possessions this season.
How to make Mavericks vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 229 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Jazz vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that on a roll on NBA picks.