The Indiana Pacers travel to Salt Lake City to face the Utah Jazz on Friday afternoon in a stand-alone time slot at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The Pacers have won four of the last five games, improving to 26-28 this season. Utah is 25-3 at home and the Jazz have the league's best record at 41-14. Myles Turner (ankle) and Doug McDermott (ankle) are listed as questionable for the Pacers. Jordan Clarkson (ankle) is probable for the Jazz, with Derrick Favors (knee) listed as doubtful.
Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET in Salt Lake City. The latest Pacers vs. Jazz odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Utah as a 9.5-point favorite, while the over-under is set at 233 total points. Before finalizing any Jazz vs. Pacers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up over $1,100 on its top-rated picks this season, and dating back to last year, it entered Week 17 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 95-59 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Pacers vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -9.5
- Pacers vs. Jazz over-under: 233 points
- Pacers vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -550; Pacers +425
- IND: The Pacers are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Pacers can cover
The Pacers are a balanced, talented team that is effective on both ends of the floor. Indiana is a top-10 team in 2-point shooting, converting 54.3 percent of its attempts inside the arc. Part of that stems from tremendous passing, with the Pacers ranking in the top five in assists at 26.7 per game. Indiana is also above-average in taking care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 13.6 percent of possessions, and the Jazz are last in the NBA in turnover creation rate (11.4 percent).
On the opposite end, the Pacers lead the league in blocked shots (6.3 per game), with a top-five mark in steals (8.6 per game). On the whole, Indiana creates a turnover on 14.9 percent of defensive possessions, which could help to positively increase variance against a stout opponent in the Jazz. The Pacers also limit their opponents to only 11.6 3-pointers per game, ranking No. 6 in the NBA, and that is crucial against Utah's long-range attack.
Why the Jazz can cover
Utah leads the NBA in point differential, out-scoring their opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions. That overall effectiveness stems from having top-five units on both ends of the floor. The Jazz are elite as a perimeter shooting team, converting 16.8 3-pointers per game at a 39.0 percent clip, and they are also No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point shooting allowed, holding opponents to 34.3 percent shooting. Utah also projects to have a significant edge on the glass, particularly when they are attempting to generate second-chance opportunities.
The Pacers are the NBA's worst defensive rebounding team, allowing opponents to grab almost 30 percent of their own misses, and the Jazz are a top-five team in the league in offensive rebound rate (28.7 percent). Indiana also struggles to a bottom-10 mark in offensive rebound rate, with the Jazz ranking in the top five in defensive rebound rate at 75.3 percent. Finally, the Pacers have issues in both creating and preventing free throw attempts, which could lead an overall edge for the Jazz at the charity stripe.
How to make Pacers vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 223 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Pacers vs. Jazz? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 95-59 roll on NBA picks.