The Miami Heat can become the first NBA team to advance to the conference finals on Wednesday evening. Miami holds a 3-1 series lead against the New York Knicks after a Game 4 victory on Monday. Game 5 arrives on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, with the Knicks seeking a win to remain alive in the 2023 NBA playoffs. Immanuel Quickley (ankle) is listed as doubtful for New York. Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Caleb Martin (back) are listed as questionable for Miami, while Tyler Herro (hand) remains out.
Caesars Sportsbook lists New York as a 3.5-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 209 in the latest Heat vs. Knicks odds. Before making any Knicks vs. Heat picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Knicks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Knicks spread: Knicks -3.5
- Heat vs. Knicks over/under: 209 points
- Heat vs. Knicks money line: Knicks -165, Heat +140
- MIA: The Heat are 19-25-1 against the spread in road games
- NYK: The Knicks are 20-22-3 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Knicks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover
Miami's offense has performed well in the postseason, scoring 1.17 points per possession behind the individual brilliance of Butler. From there, the Heat have a friendly matchup on defense in this series, with Miami's defense operating on a string in the playoffs. Miami is allowing only 105.3 points per 100 possessions in this series, with the Knicks shooting 42.1% from the field and 27.2% from 3-point range. The Knicks are also averaging only 19.3 assists per game against Miami and, in the full playoffs, New York is scoring only 106.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Knicks have the worst assist-to-turnover ratio (1.31) of any playoff team and the worst true shooting percentage (52.6%) in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Miami also has a history of strong defense, posting a top-10 defensive rating (112.8) in the NBA during the regular season. The team's 2022-23 performance also included top-six marks in free throw prevention, defensive rebound rate, turnover creation, points allowed in the paint, and fast break points allowed. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why the Knicks can cover
The Knicks are exceptionally well-coached on the defensive end under Tom Thibodeau, providing a strong baseline in an overall sense. New York has allowed only 107.5 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, including 104.6 points per 100 possessions in home postseason games. The Knicks have also held the Heat to 41.9% shooting and 30.8% from 3-point range in the series, with Miami averaging only 22.3 assists per game. In the regular season, New York led the NBA in allowing only 45.9 points in the paint per game, and the Knicks were in the top 10 in field goal percentage allowed (46.2%), defensive rebound rate (72.7%), and second-chance points allowed (13.3 per game).
New York's offense has scuffled in the playoffs, but the Knicks ranked in the top five of the league in offensive rating (117.0) during the regular season. New York also has the best offensive rebound rate of any playoff team, and the Knicks can take solace in a friendly environment at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are 3-1 in four home playoff games, out-scoring opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions. See which side to back at SportsLine.
How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks
The model has simulated Knicks vs. Heat 10,000 times and is leaning Over on the total, projecting 214 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. See who to back at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Knicks? And which side hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 71-38 on its NBA picks, and find out.
