Four games into the NBA Finals, the matchups become somewhat predictable. By now, most adjustments have been made, and while there is always shooting variance in individual numbers, you can broadly predict who is going to play well and who isn't. A basic template for Lakers-Heat has already been laid. Barring the unforeseen, that makes these prop bets a relatively safe investment leading into a possible series-ending Game 5.
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Bam Adebayo: Over 15.5 points
Anthony Davis guarding Jimmy Butler is undoubtedly the correct defensive alignment for the Lakers, but it isn't without its risks. When the Lakers don't have another big man on the floor, it means mismatches for Bam Adebayo. That won't turn him into a 30-point scorer overnight, but it will create some easier buckets that the Lakers will sacrifice in the name of slowing down Butler.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Over 10.5 points
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's 15 points in Game 4 were by far his most valuable offensive contribution to the championship effort, but this line is so low that he won't need to repeat that performance to hit it. He has gotten to at least 11 points in seven of his past nine games, and with Danny Green limited by a hip injury, is guaranteed so many minutes that he almost gets there by default.
LeBron James: Over 27.5 points
LeBron James has played three closeout games this postseason. Against Portland, he scored 36 points. Against Houston, he scored 29 points. Against Denver, he scored 38 points. He averaged over 36 points in his three 2018 closeout victories, and over 34 in his three 2017 closeout wins. This is what LeBron does. Once you've lost three games against him, you've lost the series. He smells blood, and will be aggressive in closing this thing out on Friday.
Rajon Rondo: Over 6 assists
In the second round, Rajon Rondo converted over 67 percent of his potential assists into actual assists. In the Western Conference finals, it was over 68 percent. In the Finals? Just 50 percent. Now, those first two numbers are a bit unsustainable, but they suggest that Rondo has had some bad luck in the assists department in the Finals. His teammates aren't hitting as many shots off his passes as they were earlier in the playoffs. He got to five assists in Games 3 and 4, so a bit more luck should carry him to six.
Jimmy Butler: Under 24.5 points
Butler scored 22 points in Game 4, but the Davis matchup largely neutralized him. He got his points off forced switches and Davis' bench minutes. Both will be fewer and further between in a potential Game 5 clincher, and Butler just isn't the sort of player to force shots when they aren't available. If Davis smothers him again, expect him to be more of a playmaker for his teammates on Friday.