Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will host LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night. Anthony Davis (finger) is considered probable for the Lakers, who otherwise have a clean injury report. The Nuggets, however, will be without Will Barton (knee), Michael Porter Jr. (ankle), and Mason Plumlee (foot).

Tip-off is set for 10 p.m ET from the Pepsi Center. Sportsbooks list the Lakers as 2.5-point road favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is 220.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Nuggets odds. Before you make any Nuggets vs. Lakers picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 17 on a blistering 35-19 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Nuggets. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds and trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Nuggets spread: Lakers -2.5
  • Lakers vs. Nuggets over-under: 220.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Nuggets money line: Los Angeles -142, Denver +121
  • LAL: The Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their past six road games.
  • DEN: The Nuggets have won and covered the spread in four-straight and six of the past seven games.

Why the Lakers can cover

The model is well aware that the Lakers have been the far superior team this season. Los Angeles ranks top-three in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while Denver doesn't rank inside the top-10 in either. The Lakers are second in the NBA with a +7.4 point differential, while Denver ranks seventh at +3.9.

The Lakers have not been bothered by playing on the road this season, either. They've averaged more points on the road than at home, and their road record (22-5) is actually better than their home record (18-7). Los Angeles already beat the Nuggets by nine at the Pepsi Center previously this season, and their defense has caused serious problems for Jokic. The length of Davis and JaVale McGee has limited Jokic to just 15.5 points and 5.5 rebounds in two meetings, and slowing him down on Wednesday would make it tough for Denver's short handed offense to function.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Even so, Los Angeles isn't a lock to cover the Lakers vs. Nuggets spread. That's because home-court advantage has played a huge role for the Nuggets. In fact, Denver is just 17-10 with a +1.9 point differential on the road, but the Nuggets are 21-6 with a +6.0 point differential at home. The Nuggets have a 52 percent cover rate against the spread when playing at home, which is up to 67 percent when playing as a home underdog.

And while Los Angeles' defense has caused problems for Jokic this season, he has been on another level recently. Over Denver's seven-game hot streak, Jokic has averaged 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists while shooting 58 percent from the field. That sample includes two matchups with Rudy Gobert and the Jazz as well as a near triple-double in a 12-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks. If those defenses haven't been able to slow the Joker down, Los Angeles is going to have a tough time doing so.

How to make Lakers vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting both Davis and James to finish below their scoring averages for Los Angeles, while Jokic is projected to slow down from his recent hot streak. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. 

So who wins Lakers vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Nuggets vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.