The third season of Lauri Markkanen's NBA career has fallen short of the expectations that many laid out for him. After averaging 18.7 points and nine rebounds in his sophomore year, and looking like a future All-Star, Markkanen's numbers fell considerably this season (14.7 points, 6.3 rebounds), while his shot attempts declined. His game took steps backward while the Chicago Bulls continued to flounder around him. It also didn't help that, for the third straight season, Markkanen dealt with injuries that caused him to miss a month of action.
It's easy to look at Markkanen's numbers and say he needs to be more aggressive on offense, given the drop in shot attempts. While he certainly stands to be less passive when he has the ball, that's not the entire picture. In Markkanen's first two years in the league, he was averaging nearly 70 touches a game, while this season that's dropped to a career-low 45 a night. It's resulted in a career low in shot attempts per game (11.8), down from 15 one season ago, and the lowest shooting percentages since he's been in the NBA.
Markkanen per season stats
| Season | FGA | FG% | FG3A | FG3% | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017-18 | 12.7 | 43.4% | 5.9 | 36.2% | 15.2 |
2018-19 | 15.3 | 43.0% | 6.4 | 36.1% | 18.7 |
2019-20 | 11.8 | 42.5% | 6.3 | 34.4% | 14.7 |
Markkanen's role has become inconsistent in Jim Boylen's first full season as head coach of the Bulls. He's been relegated to standing out at the 3-point line waiting for someone to pass him the ball to launch from beyond the arc. Boylen has employed a five-out system for the Bulls, and despite the fact that they don't have the shooters to run that system effectively, Chicago averages the ninth-most 3s in the league (35.1), while ranking 29th in 3-point percentage (34.8 percent). Aside from Zach LaVine, Markannen is taking the most 3s on the team (6.3), which accounts for 53.6 percent of his shot profile, per NBA Advanced Stats.
Markkanen's a skilled shooter from deep, and in this era of space-and-pace basketball, it's understandable why he's taking so many 3s. However, he's essentially become a spot-up shooter without the ability to put the ball on the floor and create for himself a bit, which is a gross underutilization of his talents. At 7-0, Markkanen can handle the ball well, has underrated athleticism and can score at all three levels, and yet he's being used like Kyle Korver in the Bulls offense.
This doesn't mean Markkanen is void of responsibility at all in getting better; he does need to become a better finisher at the rim and an overall more aggressive player, but the areas in which he needs to improve could be fixed if Chicago made a more concerting effort to make its system benefit Markkanen more.
In the first game of the 2019-20 season, it felt like the Bulls were going to do that. Markkanen had 35 points, and shot the ball a career-high 25 times. He was bringing the ball up the floor in transition, and had a variety of ways to score in the pick-and-roll game with Tomas Satoransky. The Bulls gave him the freedom to find his own shots instead of standing in the corner.
What looked like a strong start to 2019-20, though, ended up just being the exception and not the rule for the Bulls big man. Over the course of the season, the Bulls began to use him less frequently in pick-and-roll situations, and when they did it was deployed randomly and without rhythm. Markkanen has already been vocal about wanting more to do on offense, but nothing changed during the season in the way he was utilized.
"I think I can do a lot of good things besides just shoot 3," Markkanen said. "Haven't really been able to do that lately. Just have to figure out the way I can attack the rim more and get to the free throw line."
Boylen remains "confident" that the system he's using with the Bulls "fits who [Markkanen] is." In reality, he's just utilizing one skill that Markkanen has and ignoring the fact that his talents are best used when he's getting the ball on the move. He's a more dynamic player when he's scoring while cutting to the basket, leading the charge in transition, or as he was able to do last season, put the ball on the floor and pull up for a mid-range jumper.
However, the Bulls have essentially put Markkanen's mid-range game out of commission. In his rookie season, nearly 17 percent of his shots came from that area of the court. This season, his mid-range shots account for under one percent of his shot profile, per NBA Advanced Stats. Markkanen isn't the first Bulls player to have his mid-range game rendered obsolete; just ask LaVine about it. And across the league it's been an ongoing battle between players and analytics about the effectiveness of it. However, whereas players like LaVine have the opportunity to score in other ways by creating their own shots, Markkanen's gone from having the 3-point shot being a tool in his arsenal, to being the entire toolkit.
It's resulted in stunted development for the Finnish big man, who was expected to take another leap in his Year 3. His frustration came to the surface in April, when he reportedly told the front office he would like to play elsewhere if major changes weren't made. The Bulls responded by firing longtime general manager Gar Forman and moving John Paxson from president of basketball operations to an advisory role.
It's a step in the right direction, but the front-office moves don't change how Markkanen is being used on the floor. In order for him to continue to develop and grow and not just be a catch-and-shoot player, the Bulls need to implement a system that will play to Markkanen's strengths. Whether that's with a new coach, or Boylen becomes more willing to change his style of play, Markkanen won't reach his true potential under the current system in Chicago.
