On the same night that Kristaps Porzingis returned to the starting lineup for the Mavericks, one of their most consistent players suffered a brutal injury that will likely see him missing the remainder of the season. With three minutes left in the first quarter against the Clippers on Tuesday night, forward Dwight Powell tried to accelerate while pushing off on his right leg and immediately fell to the court. The Mavericks called a timeout on the next possession, as players huddled around him fearing the worst.
The Mavericks officially announced Wednesday that Powell tore his right Achilles tendon, and that he's currently weighing his options with surgery. The timing of the injury couldn't be worse for Dallas, which was just getting its roster healthy again. You can see the exact moment Powell injured his Achilles in a rather gruesome slow-motion replay. The entire mood in the arena shifted as soon as Powell went down. J.J. Barea, who tore his Achilles just last year, almost immediately knew what happened from the look of the play, and Luka Doncic looked defeated after walking over to check on Powell.
Dallas will have to push forward without Powell, who in recent weeks has seen an uptick in touches while Porzingis was sidelined 10 games with knee soreness. Powell's rim-running ability was only heightened while paired with Doncic, and while he has his weaknesses on the defensive end of the floor, his energy and hustle were unmatched on this team. Powell wasn't putting up huge numbers -- 9.7 points, 5.7 rebounds -- but the Mavericks are sorely going to miss his athleticism and 73.9 percent finishing rate around the rim in the starting lineup.
With Powell out, this will likely push Maxi Kleber into the starting lineup. Similar to Powell, Kleber has become a bit of a success story playing within Rick Carlisle's system. Kleber doesn't offer the same level of athleticism that Powell possesses, but he can be effective in the pick-and-roll game, generating 1.371 points per possession on that play. The benefit of Kleber is he is a far better 3-point shooter than Powell, knocking them down at a 39.4 percent rate. Kleber and Doncic can run some pick-and-pop plays similar to what the Mavs did with Dirk Nowitzki during his career, and throwing Kleber in the starting lineup alongside Porzingis gives you two large bodies who can both shoot 3s and defend.
Another route the Mavericks could take is pursuing a trade to add depth to the bench with Kleber in the starting lineup. Kleber was the go-to backup center, and with him likely receiving starter minutes now, that leaves Boban Marjanovic as the only other center on this team. Marjanovic can be good in stretches, but he likely can't give you more than the 10 minutes a game he's averaging right now. Scouring the trade market for a backup center would benefit the Mavs when they'll need all the bodies they can get when the playoff come around. The only problem is the Mavericks lack any real assets that would net a quality return, so finding a solid role player at a low price may be hard.
The loss of Powell, though, may not have that big of an impact on Dallas this season. According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Mavs' projected win total only decreases by one without Powell.
Dallas | WINS | WIN% | Division | Playoff | Conference Championship | Championship |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
w/ Powell | 51.1 | 62.3% | 74.7% | 99.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
w/o Powell | 50.1 | 61.1% | 67.0% | 99.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
Difference | -1.0 | -1.2% | -7.7% | -0.1% | -2.8% | -1.6% |
The biggest drop-off Dallas could see without him is its chance at winning the division and advancing to the Western Conference finals. However, the Mavs' playoff odds don't look to be in jeopardy as they currently sit at the No. 5 spot in the West.
Powell has been incredibly valuable to the Mavericks this season, and has flourished in stretches with Doncic. It's a devastating blow for a franchise that best embodies the "whole being greater that the sum of its parts" saying, but Kleber is more than capable of filling Powell's role. His season averages (9.1 points, 5.4 rebounds) are on par with Powell, and he can spread the floor better than Powell can. Dallas still has time to figure out if it wants to pull off a trade to add depth to its bench, but the Mavs should feel comfortable with Kleber filling in for Powell in the starting lineup going forward.