Mavericks vs. Clippers odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 21 predictions from proven model on 32-16 roll
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Tuesday's Mavericks vs. Clippers matchup 10,000 times.
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (27-15) host Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers (30-13) on Tuesday. The Mavs enter Tuesday's action as winners of four straight, which has them up to fifth in the Western Conference standings. The Clippers have won four of the past five games, despite Paul George missing all five. George (hamstring) is out again on Tuesday. Dallas, meanwhile, will have Kristaps Porzingis back after he missed 10 games with a knee injury, though his minutes could be limited.
Tip-off for this one is set for 8:30 p.m ET from the American Airlines Arena. Sportsbooks list the Mavericks as 2.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points is 234 in the latest Clippers vs Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Clippers picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 13 on a blistering 32-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Mavericks vs. Clippers spread: Mavericks -2.5
- Mavericks vs. Clippers over-under: 234 points
- Mavericks vs. Clippers money line: Dallas -136, Los Angeles +116
- LAC: Los Angeles has covered just 33 percent of spreads faced as a road underdog this season.
- DAL: The Mavs have the NBA's sixth-worst home ATS cover rate (40.6 percent).
Why the Mavericks can cover
The model is well aware that getting Porzingis back provides a huge boost for the Mavs. Dallas is 18-8 in games that both Porzingis and Doncic are healthy, as opposed to 9-7 in games that one of the two missed or left the game with an injury. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 19-7 in games George has suited up, but just 11-6 when PG sits.
With George out, there will be one less scoring option for Dallas to worry about defensively. But more importantly, Doncic won't have to deal with George's defense. George was the primary defender against Doncic the last time these teams faced, and Doncic didn't make a single field goal while being defended by George. Doncic has carried Dallas over the past 10 games, averaging 33 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists in games where his minutes weren't limited by blowout during that span. If he is able to maintain that level of production, Dallas should have no issue covering the spread on Tuesday.
Why the Clippers can cover
But that doesn't guarantee Dallas will cover the Mavericks vs. Clippers spread. The model is also aware that the Clippers already have handed the Mavs a 15-point loss in Dallas this season -- a game that Porzingis was fully healthy for. Los Angeles' elite defense held Dallas' star combo of Porzingis and Doncic to a combined 8-27 shooting in that one. Doncic has been struggling with his shot a bit over the past week, and if he can't get going against L.A.'s tough perimeter defense, it is going to be difficult for Dallas to cover this spread.
As if that weren't enough, the Mavs have been one of the NBA's worst home teams this season. They're 14-5 with a +8.1 point differential on the road, as opposed to just 13-10 with a +6.7 point differential at the American Airlines Arena. The Mavs have covered just 40.6 percent of spreads when playing at home, which includes their previous loss to the Clippers.
How to make Mavericks vs. Clippers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Clippers? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Clippers vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
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